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Check FAQAbout David
David Smith has been Washington correspondent of The Guardian since October 2015, reporting on the presidential election campaigns of Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton and other candidates. He has travelled to the US naval base in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and reports from the White House and State Department in Washington. He was previously Africa correspondent, based in Johannesburg, South Africa, where he wrote about the 2010 football World Cup, death of Nelson Mandela and murder trial of Oscar Pistorius. He travelled to countries including the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Ivory Coast, Libya, Nigeria, Rwanda, Somalia, South Sudan, Zambia and Zimbabwe. David studied at the University of Leeds and edited its student newspaper before joining the Daily Express as a graduate trainee in 1997. He moved to The Observer in 2003 and reported from countries including Afghanistan and Iraq. David appears as a commentator on NPR, the BBC, CNN, Sky News and other media and has more than 100,000 followers on Twitter. In 2014 he was runner-up in the UK's Frontline Club Awards and shortlisted for the Society of Editors foreign reporter of the year, and has been longlisted twice for the One World Media Awards and twice for the Orwell Prize for political writing.
English
Interview (Print / Radio / Podcast)
Fact Checking
Portfolio
How Labour can get the economy working again
Liam Byrne's infamous note, 'I am afraid there is no money,' written in 2010, has haunted him ever since. The note, intended as a joke, was used by the coalition government and mentioned by Rishi Sunak during the election campaign. Byrne, re-elected recently, follows a tradition of outgoing officials leaving notes for their successors, as Reginald Maudling did for Jim Callaghan in 1964. The article explores the Labour Party's economic strategies and historical context.
How serious a threat to France — and the eurozone — is Macron’s gamble
Emmanuel Macron's decision to call a snap National Assembly poll backfired, with Marine Le Pen's National Rally emerging as the largest party in the first round and poised for another strong showing. Macron's strategy aimed to shift voters back to the mainstream after their support for National Rally in the European Parliament elections, but it risks a split vote between far-left and far-right factions.
Labour will preach stability – so the EU will have to wait
The article reflects on past Labour Party actions and speculates on future economic policies under Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, emphasizing stability over radical changes. Historical references include Gordon Brown's announcement of Bank of England independence. The EU is mentioned as a secondary consideration.
There’s a wall of money to invest in the UK, and it may already be here
The concept of a 'wall of money' from international investors has been influential in UK general elections, particularly during Margaret Thatcher's era. Post her 1987 victory, Chancellor Nigel Lawson's economic policies, including interest rate cuts and the UK's membership in the European exchange-rate mechanism, had significant impacts, including increased inflation and economic challenges.
Rachel Reeves and why an economist becoming chancellor is rare
Rachel Reeves is poised to become the first female chancellor of the exchequer in the United Kingdom, marking a significant milestone in gender equality within British political offices. The article highlights the historical context of the role, noting that all previous chancellors have been men, and emphasizes the importance of this change. The text reflects a positive sentiment towards Reeves' appointment and underscores the broader implications for gender representation in high political positions.
Teachers will be given protection from claims of blasphemy by religious groups under proposals set out in a government-commissioned report
Teachers will be given protection from claims of blasphemy by religious groups under proposals set out in a government-commissioned report. The recommendations include legal guarantees upholding teachers' rights to freedom of expression and barring schools from certain actions. This move aims to safeguard educational professionals and ensure their ability to teach without fear of religious backlash.
Spring has sprung, but chill winds still blow through the economy
Spring appears to have arrived for the economy in the UK and Europe, with expectations of growth in the first quarter of the year. Economists are looking at surveys and the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for early indications of business-to-business activity, suggesting that the recovery is gaining momentum.
A ‘soft landing’ for the economy looks harder to achieve
Rising tensions in the Middle East, combined with the ongoing war in Ukraine, pose a threat to the global economy, including the UK. Despite these challenges, the economic damage has been limited so far. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, which began over two years ago, contributed to high inflation but did not prevent a post-pandemic recovery. According to the International Monetary Fund, global GDP grew by 3.5% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023.
Bank of England's Struggle with Inflation and Credibility
The Bank of England is facing criticism for its inability to control inflation, which has led to societal and economic consequences, including a mortgage crisis and strikes. Despite the Federal Reserve pausing rate hikes, the Bank is pressured to continue raising interest rates amidst high wage growth and a tight labor market. Governor Andrew Bailey has acknowledged the Bank's forecasting failures and an external review is underway. The Bank's credibility is at stake, with discussions about returning interest rate control to politicians and implementing price controls.
A slowing jobs market will be good news for the Bank of England
Upcoming figures on the United Kingdom's monthly gross domestic product will be pivotal for the government ahead of May's local elections. A slight increase is expected, which could allow ministers to claim economic improvement. A lack of growth might lead to attributing the stagnation to external factors such as the weather.
Industry is looking up, but don’t celebrate too much just yet
A recent survey indicated positive developments in the UK manufacturing sector, with the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for UK manufacturing, published by S&P Global, rising above the key 50 level for the first time since July 2022, signaling growth. However, the sector still lags behind the UK services sector, which posted a PMI of 53.1.
Rishi Sunak got it right with the furlough scheme
Four years ago, Rishi Sunak, shortly after becoming chancellor, introduced the coronavirus job retention scheme (CJRS) during a Downing Street press conference. The scheme, commonly known as furlough, was part of his plan to support jobs and incomes during the COVID-19 pandemic. The article praises Sunak's initiative and its impact.
Housing crisis requires long-term solutions, not soundbites
The article discusses the UK's housing crisis as a long-term issue that predates the current Conservative government, emphasizing the need for lasting solutions rather than short-term rhetoric. It suggests reforms to the planning system to prevent local objections from delaying necessary housing and calls for developers to be compelled to build promptly after receiving permission. The article also advocates for the enforcement of developer agreements, particularly regarding the construction of social housing and services.
No 11’s revolving door has put tax policy in a spin
Speculation surrounds Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's potential decision to implement another 2p tax cut, possibly in national insurance or income tax. Encouraged by Treasury and Downing Street advisers, this follows a previous 2p cut announced in the autumn statement. The article highlights the uncertainty and strategic considerations in the UK's tax policy.
Economists were too gloomy about the UK— thanks to Liz Truss
The article discusses the annual forecasting league table for the UK economy, highlighting that economists were overly pessimistic about the UK's economic performance last year. It attributes the better-than-expected results to the policies of Liz Truss, suggesting that learning from past data can provide valuable insights for future economic forecasts.
Why we should embrace an ageing but active population
The article discusses the implications of an ageing population on economic factors such as debt. It highlights the increase in the number of people aged 65 and over in the UK over the next 20 years, which is projected to rise from less than 13 million to more than 20 million. The discussion is framed as a companion piece to a previous column on debt, suggesting that the ageing population is a significant driver of long-term debt.
What does recession mean for the UK? The economy in five charts
The UK entered a technical recession in the second half of the previous year, with GDP falling by 0.3% in the fourth quarter after a 0.1% decline in the third. The article suggests that GDP per capita is a more relevant measure for individuals, which has also been declining, with a 0.6% fall in the last quarter of the year following a 0.4% decrease in the third quarter.
If we play to our strengths, Britain can escape the dreaded doom-loop
The Bank of England's latest economic outlook is slightly more optimistic than three months ago but still offers little encouragement, with no clear signs of early interest rate cuts. A single vote for a rate cut was outweighed by two votes for an increase. The Bank predicts inflation will hit the 2% target by spring but rise to 2.75% by year-end. This follows the International Monetary Fund's latest world economic outlook, which was only marginally more positive.
Interest rates will stay high until the pay juggernaut slows down
Pay is a central issue in ongoing industrial disputes, with train drivers and junior doctors striking over inadequate pay offers. The article suggests that the rapid growth in pay is contributing to high interest rates.
Will British shoppers ever be big spenders again?
The UK economy, traditionally reliant on consumer spending, is facing a change in narrative. While exports and investment are still necessary for healthier growth, the economy could benefit from an increase in consumer spending, which accounts for about 60% of GDP. The concern over household debt, which peaked at 156% of income in 2008, has subsided as it fell to 126%.
Even after Brexit, the UK is getting pulled closer to Europe
Four years after formally leaving the European Union, the UK remains closely tied to Europe, with over half of its trade still conducted with EU countries. This finding from the UK in a Changing Europe think tank highlights the ongoing economic interdependence between the UK and the EU, despite Brexit advocates' hopes for reduced reliance on the single market.
Will the UK economy recover in 2024 or is No 10 in dreamland?
A speculative vision for the UK economy in 2024 includes a sharp fall in inflation to 2 percent, leading to increased real incomes, strong consumer spending growth, and the Bank of England reconsidering its inflation target expectations.
What the spring budget could mean for your finances and the UK election
Jeremy Hunt has sparked speculation with the announcement of his spring budget on March 6, raising questions about the timing of the UK general election and potential tax cuts. Historical precedents of spring budgets are noted, with comparisons to past chancellors, amidst concerns about the current state of the economy.
Can a resilient consumer keep the economy from recession?
The article discusses the apparent contradiction between visible consumer spending during the festive season and the broader economic concerns about recession risks. It highlights the seasonal nature of spending and suggests that while December's consumer activity is high, it may not be indicative of a sustained economic boom.
The inflation outlook is gloomier – so will interest rates be cut next year?
Recent weeks have seen a resurgence of inflation concerns, despite a year of falling rates. Last year's inflation rate peaked at 11.1%, the highest since 1981, but has since dropped to 4.6%. The Bank of England's aggressive monetary policy and international factors have played significant roles in this trend. Rishi Sunak, although not directly influencing the process, has been a notable figure in the context of these economic changes.
We have record immigration. So why are we so short of workers?
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) releases key statistics on topics such as inflation, wages, and public finances, with some of the most consequential data, like pandemic GDP revisions and immigration figures, released at 9.30am. Recent figures revealed a significant net migration to the UK, raising questions about the labor market despite record immigration.
Investment badly needs a boost — can Jeremy Hunt provide it?
The chancellor aims to boost business investment, highlighting a 15% productivity gap between the UK and Germany. Jeremy Hunt attributes this gap to Germany's higher GDP investment rate and believes improving business investment can enhance productivity and disposable income.
Newport, we have a problem: how much can we trust ONS figures?
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has released limited labor market data this week, including information on pay, which is outstripping inflation but showing signs of deceleration, and job vacancies, which have fallen below one million, decreasing by over 250,000 in the past year. However, the release lacked comprehensive employment data, which is traditionally the focal point of these releases.
Jeremy Hunt must stick to his guns and ignore pleas for ruinous tax cuts
The article argues that Chancellor Jeremy Hunt should resist calls for tax cuts, emphasizing the importance of reducing inflation and maintaining economic stability. It criticizes past fiscal policies under Liz Truss and highlights the challenges faced by the Conservative Party, including recent by-election defeats. The piece supports Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's cautious approach, warning against the economic risks of hasty tax reductions.
Labour’s age-old question: how to pay for it all?
Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves of the Labour Party have been performing well in polls and won the economic debate during the party conference season, while the Conservative Party, with Rishi Sunak cancelling the northern leg of HS2 and Jeremy Hunt's critique of Reeves' speech, faced challenges.
When forecasts are too optimistic, they do nothing to promote growth
As the party conference season concludes, a common theme among UK politicians is the pursuit of economic growth. Rachel Reeves of Labour emphasized growth as the party's economic mission, while Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt of the Conservatives and Sir Ed Davey of the Liberal Democrats also highlighted the need for growth in their respective speeches.
Rachel Reeves sets out Labour’s economic stall — but where’s the meat?
Rachel Reeves delivered the Mais lecture at Bayes Business School, critiquing past chancellors and outlining Labour's economic policy, termed 'securonomics,' which emphasizes stability, investment, and reform. However, the lecture lacked detailed policy proposals. The article also discusses the Bank of England's monetary policy decisions and the potential for interest rate cuts. Labour's economic approach aims to address insecurity and foster growth, but its effectiveness remains uncertain.
Northern Ireland may be getting ‘the best of both worlds’ after Brexit
Northern Ireland faces ongoing challenges post-Brexit, with new arrangements under the Windsor framework attempting to address issues created by Brexit. Despite these efforts, the Northern Ireland executive remains collapsed since February last year, with no signs of reassembly despite political pressure.
The Bank of England must not be rushed into interest rates overkill
A reader questions the rationale behind the Bank of England's decision to raise interest rates to combat inflation, suggesting that higher rates could increase costs and prices. The article discusses the common misconception that raising interest rates adds to inflation and emphasizes the traditional economic understanding that higher rates reduce inflation by tightening monetary policy.
Jeremy Hunt needs to look at spending, not tax cuts, in his autumn statement
The focus of the upcoming autumn statement by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt should be on government spending rather than tax cuts. Despite discussions about potential tax cuts, the article argues that addressing the significant increase in public spending and the dissatisfaction with public services is more crucial. The belief that small tax cuts could improve the government's standing in the polls is deemed naive.
Inflation still feels very high but it will come down — and here’s why
Despite recent noticeable price increases in clothing, particularly with the introduction of autumn ranges, inflation is expected to decrease. Official figures show a 3.2% rise in clothing prices in September and a 1.6% rise in August, both higher than the previous year's increases. The article suggests that retailers have not yet adjusted to the anticipated fall in inflation.
How much must unemployment go up to keep a lid on inflation?
The article examines the relationship between unemployment and inflation, referencing historical economic theories like the Phillips curve and discussing current economic indicators. It questions whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates and explores how much unemployment needs to rise to achieve the 2% inflation target. The piece also delves into regional policy failures in the UK, citing a new paper co-authored by Ed Balls, which argues for more devolved powers and cross-party support to address regional inequalities.
If taxes had to pass the Adam Smith test, everyone would be better off
The article critiques various tax policies in the UK, arguing that many fail to meet Adam Smith's principles of good taxation. It highlights the unfairness and inefficiency of London's Ulez, the council tax system, and stamp duty. The text suggests that these taxes disproportionately affect lower-income individuals and hinder economic mobility. It calls for a comprehensive tax reform that aligns with Smith's principles to create a fairer and more efficient system.
We had an artificial recession, now we must avoid a real one
The article discusses the unique nature of the 2020-21 recession, describing it as artificial due to government-imposed shutdowns and fiscal stimulus. It highlights the challenges faced by the UK economy, including high inflation and a tight labor market, and criticizes the Bank of England for potentially exacerbating economic issues by keeping interest rates too high. The piece also touches on the political implications for Rishi Sunak and emphasizes the need for careful economic management to avoid a more severe recession.
After the productivity puzzle, now we have the inactivity puzzle
The 'inactivity puzzle' in the UK labour market is worsening, with over 9.4 million people economically inactive, a significant rise from pre-pandemic levels. The increase is attributed to various factors, including ill health, fewer students working part-time, and a rise in mental health issues post-Covid. Government officials, like Mel Stride, have faced backlash for their views on mental health's role in economic inactivity. The Office for Budget Responsibility highlights mental health problems as a major factor in rising health-related economic inactivity. The labour market's current state poses a significant challenge for the government.
Pay’s the issue, but don’t forget public pensions
The gap between private and public sector pay growth has narrowed, with public sector workers benefiting from more generous pensions. Defined benefit pension schemes are prevalent in the public sector, unlike in the private sector. The government resists public sector pay demands due to potential inflationary impacts and concerns over unfunded pension liabilities, which are significant. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates that public sector pensions will account for just under 2% of GDP in the long run. There is a call for rebalancing public sector remuneration towards pay rather than pensions. Recent reforms have already made significant changes, but further adjustments may be needed. The article also mentions a visit to Emmanuel College, Gateshead, where the author delivered a talk on economic shocks and their impacts.
Why we must not give up on economic growth
The article discusses the challenges and uncertainties facing the UK economy, particularly in terms of public spending, tax policy, and economic growth. It critiques the spending plans of both the Labour and Conservative parties, highlighting the unrealistic nature of their proposals. The article references past economic forecasts and their inaccuracies, emphasizing the need for humility in economic predictions. It also mentions a letter from distinguished economists supporting Labour's economic approach, which calls for increased investment in skills, infrastructure, and innovation, as well as improved relations with the European Union. The article concludes that while achieving stronger growth and well-funded public services without further tax increases is difficult, it is not impossible, and giving up on economic growth would lead to a gloomy future.
Delaying energy efficiency was a win for bad landlords
Rishi Sunak's recent reversal on the UK's net-zero strategy included scrapping proposals to require private residential landlords to upgrade their properties to an energy performance certificate rating of C. Although the plans were still under consultation, some landlords had preemptively taken steps to comply, leading to frustration and sarcastic remarks from tenants on social media. The article suggests that proactive landlords should be supported, while the policy U-turn benefits those who delay making improvements.
Shielding firms from shocks has given them less incentive to change
Businesses and the economy are often encouraged to be dynamic and adaptable. A report by the Resolution Foundation and the London School of Economics' Centre for Economic Performance, titled 'Ready for Change: How to make the UK economy more dynamic,' suggests that the UK economy is currently stagnant. The report is authored by Richard Davies, Nadim Hamdan, and Gregory Thwaites.
Time for the Bank of England to take a pause on rate rises
Pay growth is finally outstripping inflation after a period of declining real wages, but other labor market indicators are weakening, with rising unemployment and falling employment and vacancies. Recent GDP data revisions show a flatlining economy, with a 0.5% decline in July. The Bank of England is expected to consider these factors in its upcoming decisions.
A strange Covid recession and recovery has just become even stranger
The article reflects on the historical context of economic reporting and the unique nature of the Covid-19 recession and recovery. It highlights the significance of traditional economic publications like the Blue Book and the role of the Bank of England in economic documentation.
The 8 things politicians should be talking about (but aren’t)
Political parties are expected to adopt a cautious approach in their upcoming conferences and the general election, avoiding controversial but crucial issues for the country's long-term future.
Tax reform makes sense whoever is in No 11, but don’t hold your breath
The next UK general election is anticipated to be more than a year away, with political parties already establishing their stances. Jeremy Hunt, facing pressure from his party, had to defend against early calls for tax cuts following recent public finance figures. Meanwhile, Labour's Rachel Reeves stated her party would not introduce a wealth tax, believing prosperity does not stem from taxation. Both Hunt and Reeves, who reportedly share mutual respect, are pressured to take actions they deem unwise.
Should we move the Bank’s inflation target to 3%?
The article discusses the ongoing debate about whether the Bank of England should adjust its inflation target from 2% to 3%. Despite a significant reduction in inflation from its peak of 11.1% to 6.8%, there is still a long way to go to reach the current target. The government is particularly concerned about the upcoming inflation figures, which will impact state pensions and benefits adjustments.
Retail losers feel like more than just the usual casualties of capitalism
Wilko, a homeware store chain, is facing the risk of vanishing from UK high streets, with ongoing sale negotiations that may result in a partial or complete rescue. The potential closure threatens the jobs of 12,500 workers and impacts suppliers, while also contributing to a broader sense of loss among consumers who recall past retail failures like Woolworths and have personal connections to brands such as Laura Ashley.
Zero-hours deals do a great job in luring people back to flexible work
The debate over zero-hours contracts highlights the divide between unions and employers. Unions, such as the Trades Union Congress, criticize these contracts for offering one-sided flexibility favoring employers, while the Irish government's legislation to restrict them was hailed as a victory for low-paid and insecure workers. Conversely, employers and organizations like the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development view zero-hours contracts as beneficial for flexibility in the labor market.
Jobs have held up well, but now the cracks are showing
Marshalls, a building materials manufacturer, announced the cut of 250 jobs and the closure of a factory in Scotland due to challenging market conditions and persistent weakness in new housebuilding and private home maintenance. This follows a previous reduction of 150 jobs last year.
Don’t mention the Germans when going for faster growth
The International Monetary Fund's latest growth forecasts predict the world economy will grow by 3 per cent this year and next, which is below the historical average. The UK is expected to see weak growth of 0.4 per cent this year and 1 per cent next year, which is better than a mild recession. Germany, however, is expected to be in a mild recession, contracting by 0.3 per cent.
The window is closing on further interest rate hikes
The article discusses the current economic situation, focusing on inflation and interest rates. It highlights the challenges posed by food price inflation and the impact of Russia's actions on Ukrainian grain shipments. The Bank of England's concerns about wage growth and its potential impact on inflation are examined, along with the possibility of further interest rate hikes. The article also touches on consumer confidence, the role of indirect taxes, and the economic relationship between the UK and Poland.
Faster growth is possible – if we do the right things
Growth is currently a key issue, with recent figures showing no economic growth over the three months to May and a smaller economy compared to a year earlier. Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, in his Mansion House speech, introduced measures aimed at fostering stronger economic growth in the long term, aligning with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's pledges. The 'Mansion House Reforms' are designed to encourage pension funds to invest in new and unlisted growth businesses.
We splashed the cash, and helped push prices higher
Consumer spending has contributed to rising prices, as evidenced by high demand and limited availability of hotel bookings, leading to increased costs for accommodations.
Tax rises won’t cure inflation but a little patience from the Bank might
The Bank of England has raised interest rates significantly over the past 18 months to combat inflation, yet the core inflation rate remains above 7 percent. The impact of this monetary tightening is uneven, affecting mainly owner-occupiers with mortgages upon remortgaging and private renters due to increased borrowing costs for landlords. The effectiveness of these measures is in question as wage pressure builds.
Uncertainty at Westminster can only hinder business investment
The UK's business investment levels are low compared to other G7 countries, a concern highlighted by former Chancellor Rishi Sunak. Despite the challenges of Brexit and the pandemic, Sunak increased the corporation tax from 19 to 25 percent in April, moving away from the UK's previous position of having the lowest corporation tax rate in the G20.
What the economy will look like at the next election
The article discusses the potential economic backdrop for the next UK election, which must occur before the end of January 2025. It references a new report from Capital Economics titled 'Why is the UK economy lagging behind?' and touches on political figures such as Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak, and Theresa May, highlighting their relevance to the upcoming election.
Don’t be fooled by talk of tax cuts – the tax burden is actually going up
The article reflects on a past conversation with George Osborne, then shadow chancellor, about the Conservative Party's approach to tax cuts and fiscal discipline. It suggests that despite talks of tax cuts, the tax burden is on the rise, and it contextualizes this within historical events such as the financial crisis, Brexit, and the pandemic.
Inflation is becoming the ultimate stealth tax
In March 2021, then-chancellor Rishi Sunak announced a tax policy to freeze income tax allowances and thresholds for four years, aiming to repair public finances. The policy, intended to be progressive and fair, contrasts with previous Tory approaches. Recent inflation figures highlight the consequences of this freeze, with inflation rates around 9% last year and 8.7% last month, effectively increasing the tax burden on individuals.
Hunt and Sunak are trying to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear
The article discusses the current economic narrative being shaped by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. Both leaders are attempting to present a positive outlook on the UK's economy, with Hunt criticizing 'insidious declinism' and Sunak highlighting 'massive upgrades' in economic forecasts and better-than-expected real household incomes. The focus on the economy is attributed to their roles and the need to change the prevailing narrative.
Interest rates are rising but the real question is how soon they’ll be cut
The Bank of England is expected to raise the UK interest rate from 4.25 to 4.5 percent, following recent increases by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. This move deviates from the previously anticipated cap of 4 percent due to unfavorable inflation data and economic activity. City economists are divided on whether this will be the final increase or if additional hikes are forthcoming.
The battle won’t be over until food inflation slumps
Food inflation in the UK has risen by 18.3% in February compared to the previous year, a rate that equals the cumulative increase over the prior 11 years and 4 months, highlighting the exceptional scale of current food price inflation.
Happy new tax year? That may be wishful thinking
As the 2023-24 tax year ends and the 2024-25 tax year begins, tax advisers, accountants, and those selling individual savings accounts may feel relieved that the hectic period is over. The article hints at the peculiar timing of the tax year transition and its implications.
Interest rates are painful but people are less indebted than in the past
The Bank of England's interest rate is currently at 4%, the highest in over 14 years, which is a significant increase from its position 14 months prior. Despite the rise, the overall impact on households is not as severe as in the past due to lower levels of indebtedness. Catherine Mann of the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee hinted at the possibility of further rate increases.
Silver Is Outpacing Gold. That’s a Good Sign for the Global Economy.
Silver has significantly outpaced gold's gains over the past three months, with Comex silver futures climbing nearly 25% compared to gold's almost 19% rise. This unusual performance suggests a bullish outlook for global economic growth in 2023, according to Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research.
Inflation’s not yet licked and pay’s becoming a problem
The article discusses the ongoing challenges of inflation and wage growth in the UK. Despite predictions of falling inflation, food prices and household fuel bills remain high, causing consumer confidence to plummet. The Bank of England is concerned about persistent core inflation and rising private sector wages, particularly in finance and business services. The article also pays tribute to Sir Alan Budd, a prominent economist who recently passed away.
A league table that shows we need to raise our game
The UK's poor productivity performance is highlighted as a major issue affecting real wages and living standards. The Office for National Statistics recently published its annual international comparisons of productivity within the G7, providing a reason to revisit this critical topic.
NASCAR Free Agent Profile: Michael McDowell Seeks Team-Friendly Extension With Front Row Motorsports
Michael McDowell, a 36-year-old NASCAR driver, seeks a team-friendly extension with Front Row Motorsports after winning the Daytona 500. Despite his increased market value, McDowell prefers the organization to invest around him. His clean driving and performance on 550-hp tracks have made him a valuable asset, though his weakness in restarts has been mitigated by current race trends. Front Row Motorsports benefits from McDowell's affordability, allowing for growth in other areas such as pit strategy and aero/body departments. McDowell enjoys a unique level of autonomy and decision-making influence within the team.
NASCAR Free Agent Profile: Matt DiBenedetto Faces Thin Market After Year Of Regression
Matt DiBenedetto, currently driving for Wood Brothers Racing, faces a challenging market for securing a competitive ride in the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season. Despite his quantifiable skills placing him among the top 20 drivers, his performance has regressed since 2020, and he lacks personal sponsor funding to enhance his prospects. Potential fits include Front Row Motorsports and JTG Daugherty Racing, though these opportunities are uncertain. DiBenedetto may need to consider options outside the Cup Series.
NASCAR Free Agent Profile: Despite Family Ties, Austin Dillon Brings Value To Richard Childress Racing
Austin Dillon, a NASCAR driver for Richard Childress Racing (RCR), is evaluated for his on-track production and value to the team. Despite not qualifying for this season's playoffs, Dillon's statistical strengths, such as crash avoidance and efficient long-run movement, suggest he is a capable driver. His open market value is estimated at $2.156 million per season, with a projected worth of $2.018 million for 2022. Dillon's relationship with RCR, where his grandfather is the namesake, is seen as beneficial, allowing the team financial flexibility to support rising talent like Tyler Reddick. Dillon's presence at RCR is expected to continue, contributing to the team's competitive growth.
NASCAR Free Agent Profile: Efficient Passer Ryan Preece Continues To Enhance Value
Ryan Preece, a NASCAR driver for JTG Daugherty Racing, is recognized for his efficient passing and is seen as a beacon of hope for Northeast racers. Despite JTG Daugherty's lack of speed and financial stability, Preece's open market value has increased significantly, with a projected worth of $1.316 million for the 2022 season. His strengths include surplus passing, position retention on restarts, and crash avoidance. Likely suitors for Preece include JTG Daugherty Racing, Richard Childress Racing, and Stewart-Haas Racing, with JTG Daugherty being the most realistic option due to existing sponsorship from The Kroger Company.
NASCAR Free Agent Profile: There’s No Clear Market For 43-Year-Old Ryan Newman
Ryan Newman, a NASCAR driver for Roush Fenway Racing, faces an uncertain future as a free agent due to his declining on-track performance and high crash rate. His open market value has decreased significantly, and with Brad Keselowski replacing him at Roush Fenway, Newman's prospects for a full-time Cup Series role are slim. A part-time role was considered but is unlikely without sponsorship. The SRX Series, owned by Tony Stewart, may offer Newman a competitive outlet that aligns with his experience and market value.
NASCAR Free Agent Profile: Ricky Stenhouse Seeks Contract Extension With JTG Daugherty
Ricky Stenhouse is seeking a contract extension with JTG Daugherty Racing for the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series season. Despite his desire to stay, uncertainties around the team's sponsorship and potential sale create challenges. Stenhouse's market value has increased, and his performance metrics show significant strengths, particularly in passing and defending positions. JTG Daugherty Racing remains his best fit, although the team may consider other drivers. Stenhouse's current performance marks the best of his career, indicating potential for continued success.
Robert Wickens Is Ready To Race Toward A Storybook Ending. How Much Will It Cost?
Robert Wickens, paralyzed from the waist down after a 2018 crash, is eager to return to racing but faces significant financial hurdles. After a successful test drive with Bryan Herta Autosport, Wickens needs substantial funding and a custom hand-control system to continue his career. Despite the challenges, both Wickens and Herta are optimistic about his potential return to elite motorsport, with support from Hyundai and other partners being crucial. Wickens' journey highlights the intersection of determination, technology, and financial backing in overcoming physical limitations.
With Impending Alex Bowman Extension, Hendrick Motorsports Is Saving Its Budget For Elliott And Byron
Alex Bowman is set to sign a multi-year extension with Hendrick Motorsports, a move seen as strategic for balancing the team's budget. Bowman's affordability and solid performance make him a valuable asset, allowing Hendrick to allocate funds towards retaining top drivers Chase Elliott and William Byron. Elliott, a series champion and popular driver, and Byron, who has shown significant improvement, are both entering the final seasons of their contracts. Hendrick's strategic financial management aims to maintain its competitive edge in NASCAR.
Budgetary Underdog JDC-Miller MotorSports Has Habit Of Slaying Sports Car Racing Goliaths
JDC-Miller MotorSports, a budget-conscious team based in Savage, Minnesota, has a history of outperforming larger, better-funded teams in endurance racing. Despite limited resources compared to giants like Chip Ganassi Racing, the team has achieved significant victories, including the 12-hour race at Sebring. Led by CEO John Church, the team focuses on maximizing their existing assets and leveraging the experience of drivers like Sébastien Bourdais. While they struggle in shorter sprint races, their strategic approach and resilience make them formidable competitors in endurance events.
NASCAR’s Euro Series Presents Affordable Development Path For Aspiring American Racers
Myatt Snider's unexpected opportunity in the NASCAR Euro Series, following his displacement from ThorSport Racing, highlights an affordable development path for aspiring American racers. The Euro Series offers significant racing experience at a lower cost compared to domestic options like the ARCA Series. Despite differences in car specifications and race formats, the Euro Series provides valuable road racing skills. Julia Landauer and Snider's experiences suggest that while the Euro Series is not a direct feeder to NASCAR's top tiers, it offers substantial learning opportunities. The increasing prominence of road courses in NASCAR's schedule further underscores the potential benefits of this alternative path.
Previewing The 12 Hours Of Sebring: 3 Things To Watch And How To Stream In America
The Mobil1 Twelve Hours of Sebring, part of the IMSA WeatherTech Sports Car Championship, is set to begin on March 20, 2021. NBC Sports will provide over 12 hours of coverage across its platforms. The article discusses key participants and storylines, including Filipe Albuquerque's victory at the Rolex 24, Wayne Taylor Racing's success, and the addition of Nick Tandy to Corvette Racing. It also covers the return of the No. 48 Cadillac DPi team with Jimmie Johnson, Simon Pagenaud, and Kamui Kobayashi. The article provides insights into the drivers' experiences and expectations for the upcoming race at Sebring Raceway.
With Unification, STEM And Stars, John Doonan Is On A Mission To Make Sports Car Racing Popular In America
John Doonan, president of IMSA, is working to popularize sports car racing in America through initiatives like the Rolex 24 At Daytona. Despite the pandemic, IMSA successfully conducted a full WeatherTech SportsCar Championship in 2020, resulting in a 21-percent increase in television viewership. Doonan is focusing on education and engagement, leveraging esports and STEM to attract younger fans. The presence of well-known drivers from NASCAR, IndyCar, and Formula One in IMSA races also helps to draw attention and legitimize the sport.
Style Over Substance: Why Similarity, More Than Name Recognition, Is Integral To Endurance Racing Roster Assembly
The article discusses the importance of driver compatibility over name recognition in endurance racing team assembly, highlighting the successful pairing of teammates Felipe Nasr and Pipo Derani at Action Express Racing. It emphasizes the strategic considerations teams make, such as driving style, physical attributes, and handling preferences, to optimize performance and minimize the need for mechanical adjustments. Wayne Taylor's Rolex 24-winning program and Ryan Briscoe's new team Scuderia Corsa are also mentioned, illustrating the careful planning that goes into roster assembly for events like the Rolex 24 At Daytona.
PB&J, Rice And ‘A Little Pasta’ Among Preferred Foods Fueling This Weekend’s 24 Hours Of Daytona
Patrick Long, a seasoned Porsche endurance racer, emphasizes the importance of nutrition in preparing for the 24 Hours of Daytona. He and other drivers like Dane Cameron, Ricky Taylor, and Laurens Vanthoor have specific dietary preferences, often favoring simple, easily digestible foods like peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, rice, and pasta. The COVID-19 pandemic has added challenges to meal preparation, with drivers like Felipe Nasr taking on the responsibility themselves. The article highlights the balance between physical and mental fitness, and the role of nutrition in achieving optimal performance during endurance races.
Continuity Key For Action Express Amid Sports Car Racing’s Season Of Change
Action Express Racing, led by team manager Gary Nelson, emphasizes the importance of continuity amid a season of significant changes in the IMSA WeatherTech SportsCar Championship. Despite competitors upgrading and new drivers entering the market, Nelson retained his core team and drivers Felipe Nasr and Pipo Derani, who have shown strong performance. The team aims to leverage their stability to excel in the upcoming season, including the prestigious Rolex 24 At Daytona. The introduction of the LMDh hybrid car in 2023 will test Nelson's preference for continuity, but he remains confident in his team's approach.
The 5 Drivers Left Disappointed By NASCAR Free Agency
The article discusses five NASCAR drivers who were left disappointed by the outcomes of the 2020 free agency period. Brad Keselowski, once the most valuable free agent, had to settle for a reduced one-year extension with Team Penske due to the financial impact of the pandemic. Kyle Larson, suspended for using a racial slur, signed a significantly lower-value contract with Hendrick Motorsports. Erik Jones, cut loose by Joe Gibbs Racing, found a new home with Richard Petty Motorsports but faces uncertainty. Matt DiBenedetto will return to Wood Brothers Racing for one more year but is set to be replaced by Austin Cindric in 2022. Clint Bowyer, unable to secure a long-term deal with Stewart-Haas Racing, will transition to a broadcasting role with FOX Sports. The article highlights the financial and career challenges faced by these drivers in a pandemic-affected market.
The 5 Biggest Winners In NASCAR Free Agency
The article identifies the top five winners in the 2020 NASCAR free agency, highlighting drivers Ryan Blaney, Bubba Wallace, Alex Bowman, Ross Chastain, and Daniel Suárez. Blaney secured a multiyear extension with Team Penske before the pandemic, while Wallace joined the new 23XI Racing team owned by Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin. Bowman extended his contract with Hendrick Motorsports, Chastain moved to Chip Ganassi Racing, and Suárez joined Team Trackhouse. The article discusses the drivers' market values, contract details, and future prospects, emphasizing the strategic moves and potential benefits for both the drivers and their respective teams.
NASCAR Analysis: Chase Briscoe’s Promotion Provides Financial And Competitive Flexibility To Stewart-Haas Racing
Stewart-Haas Racing announced that Chase Briscoe will replace Clint Bowyer in the No. 14 Ford starting in 2021, aiming to leverage Briscoe's potential for higher production value and financial flexibility. Bowyer, who has seen a decline in performance, will transition to a role at FOX Sports. Briscoe, supported by new sponsor HighPoint.com, is expected to bring significant value, having shown strong performance in NASCAR's Xfinity Series. The team's strategy aligns with Briscoe's strengths, particularly on road courses and short tracks. This move is seen as a positive step for SHR, potentially positioning Briscoe as a consistent playoff contender.
Past His Prime And In The Midst Of A Pandemic, NASCAR’s Kurt Busch Is Oddly Indispensable
Kurt Busch, a 42-year-old NASCAR driver and 2004 series champion, remains a key figure in the sport despite the typical decline in performance drivers face after the age of 39. With a contract extending beyond the current year and a personal sponsor in Monster Energy Drink, Busch has become indispensable to Chip Ganassi Racing, especially after the firing of Kyle Larson. Busch's performance ranks him ninth in the Production in Equal Equipment Rating and he has consistently out-finished his speed ranking. He is aware of the changing economic landscape in NASCAR, with driver salaries dropping due to COVID-19, and anticipates potential one-year deals in the future. Despite the uncertainties, Busch has no immediate plans to retire and expresses interest in racing in different forms beyond NASCAR.
Contract Decision Looms For NASCAR’s Matt DiBenedetto
Matt DiBenedetto's NASCAR Cup Series career reached a milestone with his first playoff qualification, bringing Wood Brothers Racing back to the playoffs since 2017. The team faces a decision on whether to retain DiBenedetto for the 2021 season, with arguments supporting both retention and release. DiBenedetto's performance has met internal expectations, making him a valuable asset, while Austin Cindric, a promising young driver, presents a cost-effective alternative. The decision is influenced by pandemic-related delays in contract negotiations and the potential long-term benefits of each driver.
Answering 3 Critical Questions As NASCAR Free Agency Shifts Into Overdrive
The NASCAR Cup Series is back on schedule after a 10-week pause due to COVID-19, but driver movement has been delayed. The pandemic has significantly impacted contract negotiations, with driver salaries dropping by 30-40%. Corey LaJoie left GoFas Racing, betting on a better opportunity despite the economic downturn. Hendrick Motorsports is seeking a replacement for Jimmie Johnson, with Erik Jones and Bubba Wallace among the potential candidates. The article discusses the broader implications of the pandemic on NASCAR's free agency and sponsorship landscape.
Despite Exile From NASCAR, Kyle Larson Is A Sought-After Free Agent
Kyle Larson, a successful NASCAR driver, was suspended and lost sponsorships after using a racial slur during an online event. Despite this, he has found success in the World of Outlaws and is considered a valuable free agent for a potential return to NASCAR. Teams like Stewart-Haas Racing and Richard Petty Motorsports have shown interest, and Ford's Mark Rushbrook has not denied the possibility of Larson joining a Ford team. Larson's market value has decreased due to the incident, but he remains a talented driver who could be offered a contract with a NASCAR team.
Hong Kong review vital to overcome problems with narrow tax base
Paul Chan Mo-po's first budget speech, while lacking surprises, provided a comprehensive review of the outgoing administration's measures and achievements. A key announcement was the establishment of a tax policy unit to examine Hong Kong's tax regime and address its narrow tax base. The article discusses the potential for targeted tax concessions and the challenges posed by international tax regulations, particularly the BEPS project. The commitment to addressing the narrow tax base is reiterated, highlighting the political difficulties and the increasing pressure on government expenditure due to demographic changes. The financial secretary's focus on supporting the elderly and disadvantaged has significantly increased social welfare expenditure, underscoring the urgency of resolving the tax base issue.
CNN interview about WikiLeaks' impact on the 2016 US presidential election.
Interview on MSNBC about Britain's referendum vote to leave the European Union. Washington, DC, Friday 24 June 2016.
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