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Jose Chalhoub

Caracas, Venezuela
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About Jose
jose chalhoub is a journalist based in Caracas, Venezuela. I have a major in political science worked for 13 years in the oil sector and now providing  country risks assessments and oil markets insights and analyses. Often been quoted in different specialized media in oil markets issues, Venezuela and Latinamerica.
Interview (Video / Broadcast) Fact Checking
Risk Analysis

Venezuela’s gasoline and diesel shortage: No light at end of the tunnel?

04 Apr 2024  |  aa.com.tr
Venezuela is facing severe gasoline and diesel shortages due to mismanagement by the state-run oil company PDVSA, compounded by US sanctions. The crisis has led to a collapse in oil production and refining capabilities, resulting in skyrocketing food prices, shortages, and a black market controlled by military officials. The Maduro government has sought help from allies like Iran and has used the crisis as a tool for social control. The Biden administration's decision to maintain sanctions and the lack of recent aid from Iran have exacerbated the situation. With regional elections approaching, the government faces pressure to resolve the energy crisis amidst a deep economic crisis and potential social unrest.

How Will the Israel-Hamas War Reshape Europe’s Gas Market Dynamics?

16 Oct 2023  |  Modern Diplomacy
The ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, referred to as the 'Al-Aqsa Storm,' is significantly impacting the European gas market. Despite the European Union's substantial gas reserves, the stability of these reserves is threatened by escalating Middle East tensions. Historical disruptions, such as the 2022 Russian gas shipment cuts, have already led to record price hikes. Current worker strikes in Australia and halted gas production in Israel further complicate the scenario, potentially leading to price volatility. Israel's role as a gas exporter is under threat, with significant reductions in exports to Egypt. Goldman Sachs warns of possible repercussions on global oil and gas sectors, with potential proactive production increases by key players like Saudi Arabia. The conflict underscores the intricate balance of geopolitics and global energy markets, with Europe grappling with far-reaching geopolitical events in its quest for energy security.

The Israel-Hamas War: Exploring the Geopolitics of Oil in the Middle East

12 Oct 2023  |  Modern Diplomacy
The Israel-Hamas war has significant ramifications for the geopolitical dynamics around oil in the Middle East. The conflict has led to a noticeable increase in oil prices due to concerns about potential disruptions in the global oil supply. The war has escalated since October 10, 2023, with Hamas launching attacks on Israel, which responded with airstrikes and ground operations. The conflict raises fears of broader regional involvement, particularly from Iran, and impacts investment decisions in the oil sector. The war could affect OPEC nations' oil production and prices, as well as global oil market stability. The outcome will depend on various factors, including international diplomatic efforts and regional responses.

Can Venezuela become an oil exporter to the U.S.?

07 Oct 2023  |  moderndiplomacy.eu
The possibility of Venezuela becoming an oil exporter to the U.S. is complicated by operational, financial, and political challenges. Despite Chevron receiving approval to trade and ship Venezuelan oil, PDVSA's production remains low due to mismanagement and corruption. The Biden administration may seek political concessions from Caracas, such as the release of political prisoners and free elections, in exchange for lifting sanctions. The presence of Russian and Chinese companies in Venezuela and the need for significant investment to increase production further complicate the situation. The geopolitical landscape, including the war in Ukraine and OPEC+'s recent decisions, also influences the potential for Venezuelan oil to re-enter the U.S. market.

The Potential of Palestinian Gas and the Role of Regional Powers: From Promise to Action

18 Sep 2023  |  moderndiplomacy.eu
Recent developments indicate positive progress on the Gaza marine gas field, with Israel's preliminary approval following mediation by Egypt and Jordan. This project, which could yield $2.5 billion over 15 years, is seen as beneficial for energy security in Gaza, the Palestinian economy, and Israel's regional standing. The preliminary deal involves Egypt's EGAS developing the field, with revenues going to the Palestinian Authority. Public perceptions in Gaza are mixed, with some optimistic about economic benefits and others skeptical. Egypt and Jordan have played significant roles in mediating the agreement, which aligns with their regional interests. The project is expected to foster economic interdependencies and enhance regional cooperation, with a final agreement anticipated to bring substantial economic and security benefits to the involved parties.

US Diplomacy in Asia: Navigating a New Era of Cooperation

17 Sep 2023  |  Modern Diplomacy
The United States must adapt its diplomatic approach in Asia, emphasizing cooperation and mutual development, particularly in response to China's call for recognizing shared aspirations. The article highlights the importance of partnerships based on mutual understanding, the benefits of China's Belt and Road Initiative, and the need to move beyond power politics. It underscores the significance of respecting sovereignty and avoiding aggressive policies to ensure regional stability and prosperity.

Confusion and uncertainty shape debate about U.S. Gulf policy

17 Sep 2023  |  Modern Diplomacy
Debates about US commitment to Gulf security are marked by confusion and contradictory policies, leading to uncertainty about US intentions and Gulf attitudes. Despite the US's strategic interest in the region, its pivot to Asia and inconsistent communication have fueled misconceptions. The US military build-up in the Gulf aims to deter Iran, but the lack of a clear, unified approach with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) persists. Analysts highlight the need for better communication and a cohesive strategy to enhance confidence and partnership between the US and Gulf states. Historical doctrines and recent defense pacts further complicate the US-Gulf security relationship.

5 ways to power the energy transition

10 Sep 2023  |  Modern Diplomacy
Transitioning to renewable energy is crucial for humanity's survival, as emphasized by UN Secretary-General António Guterres. The article outlines five strategies to accelerate this transition: shifting subsidies from fossil fuels to renewables, tripling investments in renewable energy, making renewable technology a global public good, improving access to components and raw materials, and leveling the playing field for renewable energy technologies. These measures aim to reduce pollution, create sustainable jobs, and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Global cooperation, policy reforms, and significant financial commitments are essential to meet these goals.

Suriname. The other new kid on the block in South America oil landscape?

08 Sep 2023  |  Modern Diplomacy
Suriname is emerging as a significant player in the South American oil landscape, with its offshore Block 58 holding over 6 billion barrels of reserves. Companies like Total Energies, Apache, and Chevron are showing interest despite some delays in investment decisions. Suriname's national oil company, STAATSOLIE, established in 1980, anticipates the country could hold around 30 billion barrels of oil offshore. The high quality of Suriname's oil, similar to that of Guyana, makes it attractive to refiners. Recent announcements of new offshore blocks aim to attract further investments, potentially transforming Suriname's economy and regional geopolitical dynamics. The Caribbean Energy Alliance, proposed by Trinidad Tobago, could also play a role in this transformation.

The Indonesian presidential election produces an unexpected twist

08 Sep 2023  |  Modern Diplomacy
An unexpected alliance in the Indonesian presidential election sees Muhaimin Iskander of the National Awakening Party joining Anies Baswedan as his vice-presidential candidate, causing concern among conservative political groups and Nahdlatul Ulama. The move aims to garner votes in Nahdlatul Ulama's strongholds but has led to strained relationships and political maneuvering. Anies trails behind other candidates, and the outcome of this alliance remains uncertain. Key figures and organizations are closely monitoring the developments, with potential implications for political dynamics and alliances in Indonesia.

Guyana as the new emerging player in oil markets

02 Sep 2023  |  Modern Diplomacy
Guyana is emerging as a significant player in the global oil market, with substantial reserves discovered in 2015 and production starting in 2019. Major companies like Exxon and Hess Corporation are leading the production efforts. Guyana's oil production is projected to grow significantly, potentially reaching 1 million barrels per day in the coming years. The country faces challenges such as establishing a legal framework to manage oil revenues and avoiding economic pitfalls like the 'Dutch disease.' Guyana's strategic importance is increasing, especially in light of global oil market challenges and OPEC+ issues.

Maps, Geopolitics and Pop Culture: Understanding the controversy in Vietnam involving Blackpink and Barbie

24 Aug 2023  |  Modern Diplomacy
The South China Sea dispute, particularly China's Nine-Dash Line, has caused tensions between China and Southeast Asian nations, including Vietnam. The controversy escalated when Vietnam banned the Barbie movie and delayed a Blackpink concert in Hanoi due to the depiction of disputed maps. These incidents highlight the intersection of international relations, politics, pop culture, and national identity. Despite the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling against China's maritime claims, the issue remains unresolved. The situation underscores the sensitivity of national sovereignty and the impact of global pop culture on geopolitical matters.

A brief analysis of the political landscape of Venezuela ahead of 2024 elections

An analysis of the crisis in the oil industry of Venezuela

Venezuela Oil Corruption Massive Scandal Prompts Rare Resignation Of Oil Minister

03 May 2023  |  zenger.news
Former Venezuelan Oil Minister Tarek Al Aissami resigned due to a corruption scandal involving the theft of $3 billion from PDVSA's oil sales, leading to arrests including the head of the cryptocurrency system SUNACRIP. His resignation, amid U.S. sanctions, may signal internal political shifts and a potential opening for U.S. oil investments, especially given the recent license issued to CHEVRON. The scandal emerges as Venezuela faces presidential elections in 2024 and must decide between maintaining alliances with Moscow, Iran, and Beijing or re-engaging with the U.S. The global oil market context, with Russian oil under sanctions and Venezuela's proximity to the U.S., adds to the strategic significance of the developments.

Venezuela Oil Corruption Massive Scandal Prompts Rare Resignation Of Oil Minister

03 May 2023  |  123ru.net
Former Venezuelan Oil Minister Tarek Al Aissami resigned due to a corruption scandal involving the state oil company PDVSA, which included the theft of $3 billion from oil sales and the arrest of the head of Venezuela's official cryptocurrency system, SUNACRIP. The scandal comes as Venezuela prepares for presidential elections in 2024 and amid speculation about the country's political alignment and its impact on global oil markets. President Maduro appointed Pedro Telechea as the new Oil Minister. The situation raises questions about Venezuela's future relations with key global players, including the US, Russia, Iran, and China.

What’s Next For Venezuela After Another Major Oil Corruption Scandal?

20 Mar 2023  |  oilprice.com
Tarek Al Aissami, Venezuela's former Oil Minister, resigned amid a major corruption scandal involving the state oil company PDVSA and the disappearance of $3 billion connected to oil sales and the crypto system. This led to the detention of Joselit Ramirez and the arrest of other PDVSA officials. The scandal comes as Venezuela prepares for the 2024 presidential elections and highlights internal political clashes within the Maduro government. President Maduro appointed Pedro Telechea as the new Oil Minister. The investigation into the corruption case is ongoing, with speculation about U.S. involvement to expand its oil presence in Venezuela. The situation could influence Venezuela's strategic alliances and its relationship with the U.S. amid global oil market dynamics.

Venezuela’s Refinery Crisis Is Far From Over

08 Sep 2022  |  OilPrice.com
Venezuela's refining industry, once a leading hub in the Americas, is facing a severe crisis with decaying refineries, frequent accidents, and a lack of skilled workers. The Complejo Refinador Paraguana, for example, operates at a fraction of its capacity. The crisis has forced Venezuela to become a net importer of refined products, relying on allies like Iran for gasoline imports and refinery assistance. Despite a 20-year swap deal with Iran, experts believe PDVSA requires around $60 billion to revitalize its refineries. Meanwhile, Venezuela remains dependent on foreign fuel supplies as it struggles to address the gasoline and diesel shortage.

The Demise Of Petrocaribe

10 May 2018  |  oilprice.com
Petrocaribe, established in 2004 by Hugo Chavez to promote energy cooperation and extend Venezuela's influence in the Caribbean, is facing potential collapse. Under Nicolas Maduro, PDVSA's declining oil production, financial troubles, and export constraints have weakened Petrocaribe. The U.S. is reasserting its presence in the Caribbean, while Russia and China are expanding their influence. The shift towards natural gas and renewables in the Caribbean further pressures Petrocaribe's oil-based model. Venezuela's mismanagement and corruption have diminished its oil industry, making it less relevant compared to neighbors like Guyana and Colombia.

PetroYuan - China's Oil Futures are Gaining Momentum

30 Apr 2018  |  community.oilprice.com
The PetroYuan, China's oil futures market, is gaining momentum as a potential counterbalance to the US PetroDollar monopoly. The Chinese government has been planning the PetroYuan for nearly a decade, and it is now becoming a reality, with the promise of being fully convertible to physical gold on the Hong Kong and Dubai exchanges. While Western mainstream media has largely ignored its significance, some outlets like Zero Hedge have recognized its potential impact. Countries like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela are moving away from the US Dollar in oil trades, and Saudi Arabia's stance will be pivotal. The PetroYuan is seen as an incremental, slow-moving force that could significantly alter the global economic landscape.

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