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Saibal Dasgupta is a journalist based in Beijing, China.
Portfolio
Low consumer spending in China hinders economy there and abroad
Low consumer spending in China, coupled with a property crisis, is hindering economic growth both domestically and globally. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and other experts criticize China's focus on subsidizing state-owned companies rather than stimulating consumer spending. The World Bank predicts China's GDP growth will fall short of its target, impacting global businesses like Apple and Nike. Despite recent measures to revive the economy, analysts remain skeptical about their effectiveness. Experts suggest transformative reforms are needed, but political costs deter the ruling Communist Party. China's Vice Minister of Finance, Liao Min, claims the economy is responding positively to government stimulus efforts.
The Eastern Window: Is BRICS emerging as a counterweight to US power?
The recent BRICS meeting highlighted the group's challenge to US economic sanctions and its push for de-dollarisation, posing a new geopolitical challenge for the next US president. The group, strengthened by the India-China border agreement and comprising major oil and arms producers, is causing concern in Washington. The upcoming US elections will determine whether the administration confronts BRICS as a rival or seeks dialogue, with Trump and Harris expected to adopt different approaches.
BRICS’ de-dollarization agenda has a long way to go
BRICS leaders, including Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, are committed to creating an alternative payment system to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. Despite their intentions, analysts question the feasibility of such a system, citing technical and political challenges. The recent BRICS meeting discussed alternatives to SWIFT, with Russia particularly interested due to its exclusion from SWIFT following the Ukraine war. The Kazan Declaration introduced the BRICS Cross-Border Payments Initiative, but participation is voluntary and non-binding. While China and India have bypassed sanctions using local currencies, experts doubt the stability of a potential BRICS currency. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen acknowledged BRICS' de-dollarization efforts as a response to U.S. sanctions, but emphasized the strength of U.S. financial markets.
India-China deal raises questions about US Indo-Pacific strategy
The recent agreement between India and China to reduce border tensions raises questions about India's commitment to the Quad alliance, which includes the US, Japan, and Australia. This development could potentially dilute the Quad's effectiveness in countering China's influence in the Indo-Pacific. The agreement, reached during the BRICS summit, signifies a potential geopolitical shift, with India and China exploring closer political and economic ties. However, there are concerns about the sustainability of the agreement given historical tensions. The US may need to adjust its Indo-Pacific strategy, considering India's evolving relationship with China.
Samit BRIKS: Geopolitical Aspirations and Competition with the West
The BRICS summit in Kazan focused on reducing dependency on Western financial systems, with member countries exploring alternative payment systems and digital currencies. Russia, China, and Iran are particularly interested in bypassing US sanctions. The summit highlighted a division between the West and the Global South, with BRICS countries seeking equal dialogue and cooperation. India and China are working to resolve border disputes, despite India's involvement in US-led initiatives against Chinese influence. Analysts are assessing India's motivations for reconciliation with China, given its strategic ties with the US.
BRICS meeting highlights geopolitical aspirations, rivalries with West
The BRICS meeting in Kazan highlights the group's efforts to reduce Western influence by exploring alternative financial systems and digital currencies. Key discussions include India's interest in financial integration and the thawing of India-China relations, with both countries agreeing to resolve border issues. Analysts suggest India's rapprochement with China is driven by insufficient support from the US for India's manufacturing sector. The US maintains a neutral stance, not viewing BRICS as a geopolitical rival.
Evolving Landscape of India-China Relations
India and China have reached a significant agreement to restore mutual patrolling rights in Ladakh, marking a diplomatic breakthrough since the 2020 border crisis. This development coincides with a downturn in Indo-US relations, influenced by a scandal involving an alleged Indian assassination attempt on a US citizen. The agreement, finalized during the BRICS summit, reflects a shift in China's strategic approach, viewing border resolution as a means to prevent India from aligning too closely with the US. The thaw in relations raises questions about India's commitment to the Quad alliance, potentially diluting its effectiveness. Despite ongoing border tensions, China remains India's largest trading partner, underscoring the complex interdependence between the two nations.
The Eastern Window: At 75, China is anxious to match US power in the next 25 years
China, celebrating its 75th anniversary since the founding of the People's Republic, aims to match the United States in economic and military power over the next 25 years. The article highlights China's transformation from poverty to becoming a global manufacturing hub, driven by leaders like Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, and Hu Jintao. Current President Xi Jinping is focused on enhancing technological capabilities to achieve parity with the U.S., reflecting a combative stance towards American dominance.
It's time to assess India’s gains from Quad membership
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's upcoming visit to the United States for the Quad meeting is crucial for addressing strategic plans to counter China. However, India must reassess its role in the Quad, as its benefits for India's land-based border security are limited. While Quad membership allows India to exert pressure on China, the technological collaboration gains have been minimal. Modi's visit follows extensive diplomatic engagements, including visits to six countries and hosting three government heads since July.
The Eastern Window: What prompted the US to finally allow the UN vote for ceasefire in Gaza
The US has allowed the UN to call for a ceasefire in Gaza, withdrawing its protection of Israel. This move comes as the Biden administration seeks to avoid blame for the ongoing massacre in Gaza, especially with upcoming elections. Israel, under Netanyahu, has been ignoring US advice, leading to a potential shift in US perception of the Muslim world. Traditional allies, the US and Israel, are now on a collision course.
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