James Henderson and Sara Vakhshouri discuss the role of nuclear power in the energy transition, focusing on the nuclear fuel cycle, the dominance of Russia and China in the industry, and efforts to diversify away from Russian dependence, especially since the Ukraine war. They explore the development of small modular reactors, fuel waste disposal, nuclear energy's role in developing countries, and the boost from COP 28. Sara Vakhshouri also highlights the world's reliance on Russia for medical isotopes.

The report 'Iraq: Implementing a Way Forward' by Atlantic Council staff and fellows provides recommendations to improve political, social, economic, and security conditions in Iraq. It is based on two years of engagement with experts through a US-Europe-Iraq Track II Dialogue. The report suggests fostering legitimacy, economic reform, strengthening national identity, mobilizing youth, establishing a monopoly on the use of force, and optimizing international assistance.

Iran is attempting to circumvent U.S. sanctions by pre-selling oil to willing countries in exchange for investment, goods, or services. This strategy aims to maintain Iran's market share and leverage while under sanctions. The U.S. ceased issuing waivers for Iranian oil purchases, causing Iran's oil production and exports to drop significantly. Iran's lost market share has been largely absorbed by other OPEC members and U.S. production. Pre-selling oil could help Iran regain market share post-sanctions and weaken the impact of U.S. sanctions. Potential buyers could include Russia, India, and China, although their current relations with the U.S. may complicate such deals. The EU's involvement through INSTEX could support the JCPOA and reduce the sanctions' effectiveness, but private businesses may be reluctant to engage until sanctions are lifted.

The Trump administration reimposed sanctions on Iran's energy sector but issued eight waivers to prevent a spike in oil prices, allowing limited imports from Iran by countries like China and India. This led to a drop in oil prices and expectations of oversupply. However, Iran's oil exports are unlikely to exceed 1.1-1.3 million barrels per day due to factors like limited shipping capacity and payment issues. The OPEC meeting resulted in production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, while Iran was excluded from cuts due to existing sanctions. The overall impact on Iran's economy could be significant if oil prices remain low.

The US administration is intensifying economic pressure on Iran through sanctions aimed at curtailing its oil exports, which significantly contribute to state revenue. These measures are expected to impact global energy markets and potentially raise oil prices. The Trump administration's approach is notably harsher than previous sanctions, aiming to reduce Iran's oil exports to less than 1 mb/d by November. Major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE are increasing supply to substitute Iranian oil, but this could weaken global energy security. The sanctions have already caused a decline in Iranian oil exports, and further reductions are anticipated. Despite the economic challenges, Iran may rely on strategic patience and support from countries like China, Russia, and some European nations to weather the sanctions. However, the Iranian economy remains vulnerable, and aggressive responses from Iran could escalate tensions in the region.

Iran's energy industry faces significant risks in 2018, including potential sanctions and domestic instability. Protests that began in Mashhad have spread nationwide, driven by economic grievances among poorer, rural populations. The Iranian government has taken measures to secure energy facilities, but the risk of sabotage by discontented workers remains high. Recent incidents, including explosions and leaks, have disrupted production, and the possibility of cyber-attacks adds to the concerns. The international community, particularly the U.S. and European countries, may impose further sanctions, exacerbating the challenges for Iran's energy sector.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and Russia will only reduce oil production if prices drop to unprofitable levels, around $25 per barrel. The recent failure to reach an agreement in Doha led to a drop in oil prices. The upcoming OPEC meeting in June is crucial, with hopes for a decision to strengthen prices. Key factors include Iran's refusal to freeze production until it reaches pre-2012 levels and the inability of Saudi Arabia and Russia to increase production further. Iran's potential to increase production significantly by the end of 2016 or mid-2017 complicates efforts to stabilize the market. The average production costs in Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Russia are highlighted, emphasizing the economic challenges faced by oil-dependent economies.

The article analyzes the significant drop in global oil prices since June 2014, attributing it primarily to market dynamics of supply and demand rather than geopolitical strategies. Saudi Arabia's decision to maintain lower oil prices is seen as a strategic move to secure market share and counteract the rise of U.S. shale oil production, rather than a direct attempt to weaken Iran or Russia. The impact of low oil prices is discussed in relation to various countries, including Iran, which faces economic challenges due to sanctions and reduced oil revenue, and the United States, where lower prices benefit consumers but threaten jobs in oil-producing states. The article suggests that while current market conditions favor efficient oil production, future developments in technology or geopolitical events could alter the landscape.