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Umair Jamal

Lahore, Pakistan
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About Umair
Umair Jamal is a correspondent for The Diplomat magazine in Pakistan. He is a Ph.D. candidate at the University of Otago, New Zealand. Umair recently joined The Nerve Center as the Coordinator of the institute's Research Division. He was an SAV Visiting Fellow at the Stimson Center in Washington D.C in 2018. His work has been featured in a number of renowned media outlets including Foreign Policy, Al-Jazeera, The National Interest, The Diplomat, The Huffington Post, Pakistan Today, South China Morning Post, The Straits Times, The News on Sunday and others. Previously, he has have worked as a Research Fellow with the Centre for Governance and Policy where he managed the Asia's region's Track-II diplomacy stream for the institute.
Umair holds an M.A in International Relations with a focus on South Asian security from St Aidan's College at Durham University.
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Changes to Indus Water Treaty Could Raise Hostility Between India, Pakistan

04 Apr 2024  |  thediplomat.com
India has issued a notice to Pakistan to amend the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, a move that Pakistan views as a threat of unilateral changes. The treaty, mediated by the World Bank, allocates the water of the Indus and its tributaries between the two countries and has been a symbol of cooperation despite conflicts. India's recent actions, including proposed projects on the rivers and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's rhetoric, have raised concerns in Pakistan. Unilateral termination by India could lead to increased hostility, including potential escalations along the Line of Control and in Afghanistan. Past dialogues, such as the 2021 ceasefire agreement, show that cooperation is possible. Some in Islamabad believe India's stance may be politically motivated by upcoming elections. Both countries are encouraged to maintain open communication channels for dialogue.

Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline: a case that deserves greater attention

21 Mar 2024  |  brecorder.com
Pakistan has approved the first 80 kilometers of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline within its borders, a project long delayed and now under pressure from Iran to avoid a $20 billion penalty. The situation reflects poorly on Pakistan's diplomatic capabilities and credibility. Despite being a US ally, Pakistan has not leveraged its position to negotiate exemptions for the pipeline project, which has been hindered by US sanctions against Iran. The article suggests that Pakistan should rethink its strategy and potentially collaborate with India to negotiate with the US, despite the current geopolitical complexities.

Will Pakistan Go Ahead and Build the Gas Pipeline With Iran?

01 Mar 2024  |  thediplomat.com
Pakistan's interim government has approved the initial phase of the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project, despite facing potential U.S. sanctions. Iran has threatened legal action if Pakistan fails to complete its portion of the pipeline, which has been delayed for over a decade. Pakistan is exploring ways to navigate U.S. sanctions, including seeking a waiver, but faces significant challenges in securing U.S. approval and international funding. The situation underscores Pakistan's delicate balancing act between complying with U.S. sanctions and fulfilling its agreement with Iran.

Pakistan’s New Cabinet Indicates Military’s Influence

01 Mar 2024  |  thediplomat.com
Pakistan's new federal cabinet, composed of technocrats, seasoned politicians, and non-affiliated individuals, reflects significant military influence. Key appointments, such as Muhammad Aurangzeb as finance minister and Aleem Khan overseeing privatization, indicate the military's role in shaping the administration. The cabinet's formation suggests deeper electoral manipulation aimed at sidelining certain political figures, particularly those aligned with Nawaz Sharif. The military's backing ensures the cabinet's authority and signals a strong stance against political opposition. The effectiveness of this arrangement amid economic and political challenges remains uncertain.

N and PPP Attempt to Form Government

13 Feb 2024  |  asiatoday.co
Following the February 8 elections in Pakistan, no single party has secured enough seats to form a stable federal government, leading to political uncertainty. Independent candidates, many backed by Imran Khan's PTI, won the most seats, but the PML-N and PPP are now attempting to form a coalition government. Shehbaz Sharif of PML-N has invited PTI to form the government if they can secure enough numbers, though PTI has dismissed negotiations. Both PML-N and PPP are vying for the prime minister position, with Shehbaz Sharif and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari as potential candidates. The military's influence remains significant, and the situation is fluid as parties navigate alliances and power-sharing agreements.

New Pakistani Government Seeks Another Bailout From IMF

01 Feb 2024  |  thediplomat.com
Pakistan's new coalition government is preparing for the IMF's review of the current $3 billion bailout package, with the interim government meeting nearly all financial targets. The PTI, despite facing election restrictions, secured the largest number of seats but lacks a majority, leading to a PML-N and PPP coalition government. Imran Khan's PTI has been criticized for appealing to the IMF to audit the recent election, potentially straining relations with the military establishment and international community. The IMF is ready to work with the new government, but the choice of finance minister, particularly the controversial Ishaq Dar, could affect negotiations. Pakistan faces significant economic challenges and must navigate political controversies and difficult decisions to secure a new financing arrangement.

How Will Islamist Parties Fare in Pakistan’s Battle for the Ballot?

12 Jan 2024  |  asiatoday.co
Islamist parties in Pakistan, including Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan, Jamat-e-Islami, and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam – Fazl, are actively preparing for the upcoming elections scheduled for February 8. These parties are employing various strategies to garner support, from leveraging religious rhetoric to promising political and economic reforms. Despite their efforts, historical data suggests that Islamist parties have struggled to secure significant electoral victories unless allied with mainstream political entities. The upcoming elections are expected to see these parties competing against each other, potentially splitting their vote base. While they aim to broaden their appeal and increase their vote share, it remains uncertain if they can significantly impact the major political parties.

How Will Islamist Parties Fare in Pakistan’s Battle for the Ballot?

01 Jan 2024  |  thediplomat.com
Islamist parties in Pakistan, including Tehreek-e-Labaik Pakistan, Jamat-e-Islami, and Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam – Fazl, are actively preparing for the upcoming elections on February 8. These parties are employing various strategies to garner support, from leveraging religious rhetoric to promising political and economic reforms. Despite their historical lack of significant electoral victories, they aim to increase their vote share. The political landscape is marked by competition among Islamist parties, which may dilute their overall impact. The volatile political climate and voter dissatisfaction with current political elites add to the uncertainty of their success.

From economic to political mayhem, Pakistan hopes for a better 2024

31 Dec 2023  |  brecorder.com
Pakistan faced significant challenges in 2023, including inflation, militant attacks, and political instability. Imran Khan was arrested and sentenced to prison, while the IMF provided a financial lifeline to the struggling economy. The National Assembly was dissolved, and Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar became the interim prime minister. Nawaz Sharif returned from exile and was acquitted of previous charges. Military trials for May 9 attack perpetrators raised concerns over democratic systems. The Special Investment Facilitation Council was formed to boost investment in industrial and agricultural sectors, and Pakistan decided to expel illegal foreign nationals. The ISI chief received an extension to maintain policy continuity amid security threats. The country hopes for stability and prosperity in 2024.

Pakistan Gets Ready for Elections

05 Dec 2023  |  asiatoday.co
As Pakistan approaches its next general elections scheduled for February 4, 2024, the political landscape is marked by anticipation and uncertainty. Political parties are maneuvering for alliances and strategizing campaigns amidst accusations of unfair advantages. The IMF's upcoming board meeting has sparked speculation about its timing in relation to the elections. The Election Commission of Pakistan assures impartial and transparent elections. Former Prime Minister Imran Khan's PTI faces challenges, including potential loss of its electoral symbol. Mainstream parties like PML-N and PPP are forming alliances, with Punjab being a critical battleground. The political environment remains unpredictable, with concerns about militant threats and confrontational politics. The outcome of these elections will have significant implications for Pakistan's economy and political stability.

Enthusiasm Marks Filing of Nominations for Elections in Pakistan

01 Dec 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Pakistan's political landscape is charged with anticipation as over 28,000 candidates have filed nominations for the upcoming National Assembly and provincial legislature elections scheduled for February 8. This marks a 33% increase from the 2018 elections. The Election Commission of Pakistan is scrutinizing the candidates, with a notable gender imbalance in the submissions. High-profile politicians, including former Prime Ministers Imran Khan and Nawaz Sharif, as well as PPP leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, are contesting from multiple constituencies. The PTI has shown a strong interest in the elections despite previous grievances with the ECP. The ECP is taking stringent measures to ensure a credible electoral process, including coordination with various government bodies for candidate eligibility checks. The elections are seen as pivotal for Pakistan's future, especially for international engagement and financial stability.

Is Pakistan Eyeing Another Bigger IMF Deal?

14 Nov 2023  |  asiatoday.co
An IMF team is in Pakistan for the first scheduled Stand-By Association (SBA) review to assess the country's progress in bridging a $6.5 billion external financing gap. Pakistan has already received a $1.2 billion loan tranche from the IMF, reflecting confidence in its financial commitments. The government has increased gas tariffs to address circular debt and plans to privatize state-owned enterprises, including Pakistan International Airlines. Pakistan aims to enhance tax revenue collection, particularly from the retail and real estate sectors. The proactive compliance with IMF conditions is seen as preparation for negotiating a larger loan deal with an elected government after the upcoming February elections.

Is Pakistan Eyeing Another Bigger IMF Deal?

01 Nov 2023  |  thediplomat.com
An IMF team is in Pakistan for the first review of the Stand-By Arrangement, crucial for bridging a $6.5 billion financing gap. Pakistan has already received $1.2 billion of the $3 billion loan approved in July. The government has increased gas tariffs to address circular debt and plans to privatize state-owned enterprises like Pakistan International Airlines and Pakistan Steel Mills. These measures aim to streamline operations and attract private investment. Pakistan is also preparing for potential tax revenue shortfalls by expanding taxation in the retail and real estate sectors. The proactive compliance with IMF terms is seen as preparation for negotiating a larger loan deal with an elected government next year.

Rise of terrorism in Pakistan: the army chief’s US visit all the more important

30 Oct 2023  |  Brecorder
The visit of Army Chief Lt Gen Asim Munir to the United States is crucial given the timing and recent regional developments. This visit, his first as the new army chief, comes just weeks before Pakistan's national elections and amidst deteriorating ties with the Afghan Taliban and escalating violence in Gaza. The US and Pakistan share concerns over the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) threat, but differ on the approach to counter it. Pakistan seeks substantial US support, including military hardware and diplomatic pressure on the Afghan Taliban, to enhance its counterterrorism capabilities. The outcome of this visit could significantly impact Pakistan's national security and political stability as elections approach.

JUI-F’s Maulana Fazlur Rehman’s meeting with Hamas leaders

30 Oct 2023  |  Brecorder
Maulana Fazlur Rehman, leader of Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F), met with senior Hamas leaders in Qatar to discuss the Gaza conflict. The JUI-F has a history of supporting the Palestinian cause and has organized rallies against Israeli actions. The meetings aimed to boost the party's religious credentials and grassroots support, though no concrete solutions were discussed. The JUI-F's current focus appears to be on domestic political goals and upcoming elections in Pakistan, with their support for Palestine being more rhetorical than actionable.

Pakistan Takes a Cautious Approach to the Israel-Gaza Conflict

26 Oct 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Pakistan's response to the Israel-Hamas conflict is marked by a cautious and balanced approach, emphasizing humanitarian concerns and the need for a ceasefire. The Pakistani Foreign Office and military leadership have called for an end to the blockade of Gaza and highlighted the long-standing issue of Palestinian sovereignty. Despite domestic support for Palestine, Pakistan has refrained from making provocative statements to maintain diplomatic relations with international players. The cautious stance reflects lessons learned from past conflicts and aims to protect Pakistan's broader political and diplomatic interests.

Pakistan Runs Out of Patience With Afghan Taliban

01 Oct 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Pakistan has ordered undocumented immigrants to leave by October 30, affecting around 1.7 million Afghan refugees. The country has accepted refugees for years but now faces security and economic challenges, including smuggling under the Afghan Transit Trade Agreement. Pakistan's stricter trade terms and crackdown on smuggling have strengthened its currency. Intelligence reports suggest Afghan nationals are joining the TTP, with a significant number involved in recent suicide attacks in Pakistan. Islamabad is unlikely to heed the Afghan Taliban's request not to deport immigrants, as the TTP continues to operate from Afghanistan. Pakistan's attempts at dialogue with the Afghan Taliban over the TTP have been fruitless, and economic concessions have not addressed Pakistan's concerns. The Taliban's refusal to cooperate on security and trade issues has led to Pakistan's punitive measures, which could further impact Afghanistan's economy.

Pakistani Official Describes Nijjar Killing as ‘India’s Jamal Khashoggi Moment’

26 Sep 2023  |  asiatoday.co
The Canadian government's allegations of Indian agents' involvement in the killing of Sikh leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar in British Columbia have sparked international concern. Pakistan has quickly involved itself, with interim Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar linking the incident to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Hindu nationalism. Pakistan's Foreign Secretary Cyrus Qazi has called for global awareness of India's alleged extraterritorial killings. Pakistan has previously accused India of targeted killings and espionage, citing an attack in Lahore in 2021 intended to kill Hafiz Muhammad Saeed of Jama'at-ud-Dawah. Pakistan is using the Canada incident to highlight a pattern of behavior by India, but Dr. Zainab Ahmed of Lahore Garrison University doubts Pakistan's ability to gain diplomatic leverage. A Pakistani security official described the killing as 'India's Jamal Khashoggi moment,' warning of potential escalations as India approaches elections.

Talking about billions?: don’t count your chickens before they hatch

20 Sep 2023  |  Brecorder
A decade after the launch of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), Pakistan must reflect on its approach to discussing large investment figures. The success of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) hinges on managing and balancing significant investment numbers with important interests. The article emphasizes the need for accuracy and prudence in public disclosures of investment amounts to build trust with financiers. It highlights the importance of learning from other countries' diplomatic strategies, such as Saudi Arabia's recent agreements with India, and calls for a more measured approach in discussing potential investments to avoid unrealistic expectations and potential hostility. The article underscores the necessity for Pakistan to create policies that balance relations with multiple countries and ensure all stakeholders' interests are considered.

Pakistan Watches Closely as India Hosts G20 Summit This Weekend

08 Sep 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Pakistani officials express concerns over India's potential use of the G-20 summit in New Delhi to downplay the Kashmir conflict and legitimize its control over the disputed territory. They fear India may exploit the event to criticize Pakistan and escalate tensions. The absence of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping is noted, with their representatives attending instead. Pakistan may leverage the visit of Saudi Crown Prince Muhammad Bin Salman to emphasize its role in regional stability. The Indian Air Force's military exercise near the Pakistan and China borders during the summit is seen as a sign of India's aggressive stance.

Pakistan’s Looming Constitutional Crisis Could Hurt Imran Khan

01 Sep 2023  |  thediplomat.com
President Arif Alvi's unilateral proposal for the Pakistani Election Commission to schedule general elections for November 6, 2023, has sparked a potential constitutional and political crisis. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) holds the authority to decide election dates, and Alvi's actions are seen as unlawful. This development impacts the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan, whose faction is weakened and divided. The PTI-P, a breakaway group, and other factions are gaining influence, posing challenges to Khan's faction. The article highlights the internal strife within PTI and the broader implications for Pakistan's political landscape.

Elections are not irrelevant, but public’s indifference suggests otherwise

21 Aug 2023  |  Brecorder
In Pakistan, widespread political disillusionment has led to a significant portion of the populace losing faith in the electoral system and political parties. The article highlights the skepticism and doubt among citizens, particularly those struggling economically, towards the ability of political leaders to bring about meaningful reforms. Allegations of fraud, corruption, and power struggles have further eroded trust in the democratic process. The piece underscores the urgent need for tangible reforms addressing poverty, education, healthcare, and job creation to restore faith in governance and prevent further social instability.

Why Did Pakistan’s Shehbaz Sharif Offer India Conditional Talks Now?

05 Aug 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif of Pakistan has expressed a desire for conditional talks with India, emphasizing the importance of diplomatic dialogue and peaceful resolution. The timing of his statement coincides with the fourth anniversary of India's revocation of Article 370, which stripped Jammu and Kashmir of its autonomy. This move by India has been a significant point of contention, with Pakistan demanding concessions for any progress in bilateral talks. The situation is further complicated by India's decision to host a G-20 meeting in Srinagar, which has drawn criticism from Pakistan and its allies, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and China. As both nations approach general elections, the potential for dialogue remains uncertain, with political motivations potentially influencing actions on both sides.

Pakistan Condemns Mob Violence Against Christians

01 Aug 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Pakistan's government and military leadership have condemned the recent mob violence against Christians in Jaranwala, Punjab, promising to hold perpetrators accountable. The violence erupted following allegations of desecration of the Holy Quran near a Christian community. Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar and Army Chief Lt. Gen. Asim Munir have expressed strong positions against the violence, while Justice Qazi Faez Isa showed solidarity with the affected community. The Foreign Office and other stakeholders have also supported religious minorities, with foreign diplomats briefed on the government's commitment. Despite these actions, concerns remain due to threats from Tehreek-i-Labaik Pakistan (TLP), which has been accused of inciting the violence. The government's response is seen as a step towards countering extremism and improving Pakistan's international image.

Establishing trust: appoint a caretaker setup for Pakistan's sake

25 Jul 2023  |  Brecorder
With coalition partners at odds over the appointment of a caretaker prime minister, the article highlights the underlying mistrust and strategic maneuvering among Pakistan's political parties. The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf faces challenges in the upcoming elections, while the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz is determined to secure its candidate for the caretaker role. The Pakistan Peoples Party and other stakeholders seek influence in the interim appointment. The article underscores the importance of appointing a trusted caretaker prime minister to ensure stability and continuity, especially in addressing Pakistan's economic challenges. The proposed constitutional amendment to grant additional powers to the caretaker premier aims to facilitate swift decision-making and effective reform implementation.

With New IMF Deal, Pakistan Gets Another Chance to Fix Economy

01 Jul 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Pakistan and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have reached a $3 billion bailout deal, providing immediate financial relief and an economic roadmap for the next nine months. The agreement has led to a strengthening of the Pakistani currency and a surge in the stock exchange. Pakistan has committed to structural reforms, including additional taxes, spending cuts, and interest rate hikes. The IMF deal is expected to unlock further loans from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, helping Pakistan manage its debt. However, political stability and adherence to the IMF framework are crucial for long-term economic stability. Political parties must prioritize economic stability and work together to honor commitments to international lenders.

Pakistan Showcases Its Ancient Gandhara Civilization

01 Jul 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Pakistan's government organized a Gandhara Symposium to promote Buddhist tourism and diversify the country's identity. The event highlighted the rich heritage of the Gandhara civilization in present-day Pakistan. A Task Force led by the Prime Minister has been established to preserve and promote Gandhara's cultural treasures. The article emphasizes the need for Pakistan to embrace its diverse cultural history and reduce the focus on Islamization to attract global tourists and foster economic growth. It calls for sustained efforts in cultural preservation beyond transient political interests.

What’s Cooking Between Ukraine and Pakistan?

01 Jul 2023  |  thediplomat.com
The visit of Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba to Pakistan marks a significant step in revitalizing diplomatic relations between the two countries. The visit, which included meetings with senior Pakistani intelligence officials, suggests deeper engagement beyond traditional diplomatic channels. Ukraine seeks Pakistan's support in its conflict with Russia, while Pakistan aims to balance its relations with both Ukraine and Russia. The visit also serves as a means for Pakistan to renew its diplomacy in Western capitals, highlighting the strategic interests and potential for collaboration between Ukraine and Pakistan.

Is the Worst Yet to Come for Imran Khan?

13 Jun 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Following the May 9 riots by PTI activists, the Pakistani military has intensified its crackdown on the party, leading to arrests and defections. Imran Khan's refusal to accept responsibility for inciting violence and his continued antagonism towards the military have worsened his situation. Despite advice from PTI Vice Chairman Shah Mahmood Qureshi to step down and leave the country, Khan remains defiant. The military is determined to hold Khan and his supporters accountable under strict laws, signaling a grim future for the former prime minister and his party.

China-Pakistan Ties Steam Ahead With Proposed Rail Project

01 May 2023  |  thediplomat.com
China's proposed $58 billion railway project aims to connect Pakistan's Gwadar port to Kashgar in Western China, enhancing trade and geopolitics in the region. Part of the Belt and Road Initiative, the project has strategic significance and is expected to strengthen China-Pakistan relations. The feasibility study by China Railway First Survey and Design Institute Group Co Ltd supports the project's potential for regional economic integration. The project could reduce China's dependency on the South China Sea and provide direct trade routes to Europe. However, Pakistan's economic challenges and infrastructure deficits may hinder its contribution to the project. The initiative underscores the deepening ties between China and Pakistan, with significant implications for both countries' economic and strategic landscapes.

Imran Khan’s Arrest Sets Pakistan on an Uncertain Course

01 May 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Former Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, has been arrested in a corruption case involving illegal land acquisition and construction for Al-Qadir University, with allegations of causing a $239 million loss to the national exchequer. His party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, is in shock, and his arrest has led to widespread protests and violence by his supporters. The arrest has significant implications for Pakistan's political landscape, potentially isolating the party and damaging Khan's relationship with the military and state institutions. It also comes at a time when Pakistan is facing a severe economic crisis and is in negotiations with the IMF, which may be affected by the political instability.

No, Imran Khan Is not Pakistan’s Ayatollah Khomeini

01 May 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Former Pakistani Ambassador Husain Haqqani criticizes Imran Khan, comparing him unfavorably to Ayatollah Khomeini. Haqqani argues that Khan's political maneuvers are self-serving and destabilizing, lacking the principled stance of Khomeini. Khan's tactics, including exploiting anti-Western sentiments and using religion to gain support, have led to violence and instability in Pakistan. Despite his efforts to regain power, Khan's support base has dwindled, and he is now seen as a threat to the country's stability. The U.S. government remains neutral, unwilling to jeopardize its ties with Pakistan's establishment.

The problem with Pakistan’s Supreme Court

25 Apr 2023  |  www.pakistantoday.com.pk
Recent rulings by the Pakistan Supreme Court, particularly under Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial, have intensified the political crisis in the country, eroding public confidence in the judiciary. The court's decision to advance Punjab assembly elections has been met with resistance from the ruling coalition, which sees it as favoring the opposition PTI. The Election Commission of Pakistan and other state institutions have also clashed with the court over its unilateral actions. Historical interventions by previous chief justices have similarly undermined the judiciary's legitimacy and harmed Pakistan's interests. The Supreme Court must now demonstrate impartiality and adherence to the Constitution to restore public trust.

Is it really about the constitution?

19 Apr 2023  |  brecorder.com
Pakistan's political and constitutional issues stem from individuals in power manipulating institutions for personal gain, rather than institutional incapacity. The ongoing crisis over Punjab elections exemplifies the disregard for the rule of law, with the government and Supreme Court in conflict, and lawmakers attempting to limit the chief justice's powers. The PTI faces legal challenges across the country, and the security establishment has stepped back from political interference. The resulting chaos undermines citizens' trust in the state, leading to a crisis of governance.

Pakistan’s New Multidimensional Strategy Against Militancy

01 Apr 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Pakistan has launched a comprehensive operation to combat terrorism, prompted by increased attacks from the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The National Security Committee attributes the rise in terrorism to the previous government's policies towards the TTP. Chief of Army Staff Gen Syed Asim Munir advocates a multidimensional strategy involving various sectors of society to neutralize militant groups. The strategy aims to eliminate terrorist activities without large-scale military operations, focusing on local community engagement and economic opportunities. Pakistan seeks to eliminate TTP safe havens in Afghanistan and cut off their collaboration with Islamic State Khorasan, requiring cooperation with the Afghan Taliban. Defense Minister Khawaja Asif has warned the Taliban regime to curb terrorist activities emanating from Afghan soil, indicating potential strikes on terrorist hideouts if cooperation is not achieved.

The Problem With Pakistan’s Supreme Court

01 Apr 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Recent rulings by the Pakistan Supreme Court, particularly those led by Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial, have intensified the political crisis in the country. The court's decisions, perceived as partisan, have eroded public confidence in the judiciary. The conflict centers around the timing of elections, with the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) pushing for early elections and the ruling Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) preferring simultaneous elections. The Supreme Court's intervention has been met with resistance from the government and other state institutions, leading to a broader institutional crisis. Historical context is provided with references to past controversial rulings by former Chief Justices Iftikhar Chaudhary and Saqib Nisar, highlighting a pattern of judicial overreach. The article calls for the Supreme Court to restore its impartiality to regain public trust.

Pakistan Hails Baloch Separatist Leader’s Arrest as a Game Changer

01 Apr 2023  |  thediplomat.com
The Pakistan Army's arrest of Baloch militant leader Gulzar Imam, founder of the Baloch National Army, is seen as a significant counterterrorism success. The operation, praised for its meticulous execution, is expected to weaken the Baloch insurgency and improve security in Balochistan, particularly in the strategically important Makran division. The arrest is also crucial for rebuilding China's trust in Pakistan's ability to protect its citizens working on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects. However, sustainable peace in Balochistan requires addressing the legitimate political and economic grievances of the Baloch people through dialogue and strong governance.

Revenge Politics Is the New Normal in Pakistan

28 Mar 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Pakistan's political deadlock has escalated into a constitutional crisis, with major parties and leaders unable to agree on holding general elections or managing state affairs. Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah and former Premier Imran Khan have both made statements indicating a zero-sum political battle. Khan's refusal to engage in dialogue and accusations against state institutions have contributed to the crisis. The Supreme Court's legitimacy is questioned, with Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial seen as biased. The political crisis continues, threatening the stability and governance needed to serve over 220 million citizens.

Will Pakistan’s Carrot-and-Stick Approach to the Taliban Regime Work?

01 Mar 2023  |  thediplomat.com
The upcoming visit of a Taliban delegation to Pakistan highlights the ongoing engagement between Islamabad and Kabul despite security differences. Pakistan has warned the Taliban regime about the consequences of not addressing concerns regarding the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Islamabad is leveraging U.S. and Western allies' concerns over the TTP to pressurize the Taliban. The Taliban's reluctance to comply with Pakistan's demands and their counter-suggestions, including relocating TTP fighters, have been met with resistance from Pakistan. The situation is further complicated by the TTP's announcement of a spring offensive against Pakistani security forces. Pakistan's carrot-and-stick approach aims to engage the Taliban on the TTP issue while offering cooperation on other matters of mutual interest. The success of this strategy remains uncertain, but it represents a bold attempt to influence Taliban policy.

Changes to Indus Water Treaty Could Raise Hostility Between India, Pakistan

17 Feb 2023  |  asiatoday.co
India has notified Pakistan of its intent to amend the 1960 Indus Water Treaty, a move seen by Pakistan as a threat of unilateral changes if its interests are not accommodated. The treaty, mediated by the World Bank, allocates the waters of the Indus basin rivers between the two nations and has been a symbol of cooperation despite conflicts. India's recent actions, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 2016 statement about water sharing and proposed projects on the rivers, have raised concerns in Pakistan. The potential termination of the treaty by India could lead to increased hostility, including along the Line of Control and in Afghanistan. Dialogue and backchannel communications have previously shown to be effective, as seen in the 2021 ceasefire agreement. However, many in Islamabad view India's stance as a political strategy to bolster Modi's electoral prospects with the BJP. The article suggests that maintaining open communication channels is crucial for peace and stability in the region.

Pakistan Scrambles for New Approach Against TTP After Peshawar Attack

01 Feb 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Following a deadly suicide bombing in Peshawar targeting police personnel, Pakistan's policymakers are considering a new strategy to address the threat posed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The attack, which resulted in over a hundred deaths, mostly policemen, and 200 injuries, has highlighted the ineffectiveness of previous approaches, including reliance on the Afghan Taliban for disarming the TTP. Pakistan's Defense Minister Khwaja Asif emphasized the need for a consistent policy to deal with militants. The government is also facing challenges in engaging with former Prime Minister Imran Khan and managing political priorities amidst crises. Pakistan aims to persuade the Afghan Taliban to recognize the mutual disinterest in TTP's violent campaign and to collaborate on border management. Despite the complexities of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations and economic dependencies, Islamabad is focused on domestic counterterrorism and cooperation with the Afghan Taliban to address the TTP threat.

Pakistan’s Army Chief Calls for Cooperation in Tackling TTP

01 Feb 2023  |  thediplomat.com
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has escalated its attacks, including a recent assault on the Sindh Police Force's headquarters in Karachi and a deadly suicide bombing in Peshawar. Pakistan's new Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Asim Munir, emphasized the need for cooperation and a unified approach to counter terrorism, criticizing the political deadlock that hampers coordinated efforts. Political parties, including the ruling elite and opposition, are criticized for not fully grasping the severity of the situation and for politicizing the issue of militancy. The TTP's propaganda aims to weaken Pakistan's political stability and public confidence in security forces, necessitating a robust and unified response to ensure sustainable peace and political continuity.

Amid Uranium Scare at Heathrow, Pakistan Confident its Nuclear Material is Secure

01 Jan 2023  |  thediplomat.com
Britain's counterterrorism police are investigating a package containing uranium seized at London's Heathrow Airport on December 29, which was reportedly from Pakistan and destined for an Iranian business in the UK. Pakistani officials deny the shipment originated from Pakistan, and British police have stated there is no threat to the public. Pakistan has been working to enhance its nuclear security, receiving praise from the IAEA, and has improved its ranking in the NTI's Nuclear Security Index. Comparatively, officials point out India's lower ranking and recent incidents involving unauthorized access to radioactive materials, suggesting the international community should scrutinize India more closely.

A year to remember and forget: Pakistan saw it all in 2022

28 Dec 2022  |  Brecorder
In 2022, Pakistan experienced significant political, social, and economic challenges, including a constitutional crisis, devastating floods, and a series of high-profile incidents. The Murree tragedy resulted in the deaths of 21 tourists due to snow-related incidents. Noor Mukadam's murder case concluded with the sentencing of Zahir Jaffer to death. Political turmoil ensued with the no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan, who was later ousted. Pakistan suffered extensive economic losses from floods, estimated at $30-32 billion. The country also saw the passing of TV host Aamir Liaquat Husain and the appointment of Lt Gen Asim Munir as COAS. Barrick Gold Corporation's Reko Diq project was declared legal by the Supreme Court. Audio leaks raised security concerns, and senior journalist Arshad Sharif was killed in Kenya. The TTP ended a ceasefire, leading to increased terrorist attacks. The year ended with hopes for a more prosperous and stable 2023.

As TTP Attacks Mount, Pakistan Runs out of Patience With Afghan Taliban

20 Dec 2022  |  thediplomat.com
Pakistan's Special Service Group killed 25 TTP militants following a hostage situation in Bannu. The TTP, supported by the Afghan Taliban, has sanctuaries in Afghanistan and continues cross-border attacks. Pakistan's attempts to negotiate with the TTP failed, and the Afghan Taliban have not addressed Islamabad's security concerns. International stakeholders, including the US and UN, have urged the Afghan Taliban to honor counterterrorism commitments. The Afghan Taliban's recent actions, such as banning women from universities and harboring militants, undermine their legitimacy. The TTP is now an international concern, and the Afghan Taliban's leadership must act against militant groups to gain global acceptance.

Pakistan and the US Join Hands Against the Pakistani Taliban

01 Dec 2022  |  thediplomat.com
The United States has offered to assist Pakistan in addressing the threat posed by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). U.S. State Department Spokesperson Ned Price emphasized the importance of Pakistan as a security partner and highlighted the threat from militant groups in the Afghan-Pakistan border region. U.S. Central Command chief General Michael Erik Kurilla's visit to the Torkham-Afghanistan border and discussions with Pakistan's military leadership indicate a potential partnership. The TTP has expressed concern over this cooperation, and recent developments include the U.S. Senate approving funds for counterterrorism and gender equality programs in Pakistan. The scope of U.S.-Pakistan cooperation remains uncertain, with potential risks for Pakistan's relationship with the Afghan Taliban.

Pakistan Ups the Ante With India on Terrorism

01 Dec 2022  |  thediplomat.com
Pakistan has intensified its diplomatic efforts against India, accusing it of sponsoring terrorism within its borders. Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah and Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar have publicly claimed India's involvement in terrorist activities in Pakistan. Pakistan's foreign secretary and foreign minister have also raised these allegations with international diplomats and at the United Nations. India's foreign ministry has responded, dismissing the accusations and criticizing Pakistan's statements. The article suggests that Pakistan's new military leadership under General Syed Asim Munir may be driving this assertive stance, which aims to challenge India's narrative without affecting backchannel communications or the ceasefire at the Line of Control.

Imran Khan’s Long March Isn’t About Strengthening Civilian Forces in Pakistan

01 Nov 2022  |  thediplomat.com
Imran Khan, chairman of Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, is resuming his 'long march' to demand early general elections, following his removal from office by a no-confidence vote. Khan alleges a conspiracy involving the United States and internal actors, but has been accused of spreading propaganda and lies. The march has been marred by violence, including an attack on Khan, which he has used to further criticize the government and state institutions. Khan's refusal to negotiate with the civilian government and his history of undermining parliamentary power and human rights during his tenure as prime minister are highlighted. The article suggests that Khan's actions are not in pursuit of civilian supremacy but rather personal political gains, including influencing the appointment of the new army chief. The stability of Pakistan is said to be at risk if Khan continues to pressure institutions and does not return to parliamentary negotiations.

Imran Khan Sweeps By-Elections in Pakistan

16 Oct 2022  |  thediplomat.com
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won six out of eight National Assembly seats in the by-elections held on October 16, with Imran Khan contesting most of the seats. Despite the victories, the results indicate that Khan's popularity may not translate to broader support for PTI, as evidenced by low voter turnout and strong opposition. The by-elections also challenge Khan's claims of electoral manipulation by state institutions. The ruling coalition gained two seats, which could be advantageous for Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Khan's strategy of contesting multiple seats and his call for early elections face significant challenges, and his political rhetoric may be losing its impact.

Military Helps With Rescue and Relief Efforts in Flood-Ravaged Pakistan

01 Sep 2022  |  thediplomat.com
Pakistan is grappling with severe floods, prompting the Pakistan Army to assist with rescue and rehabilitation. The military has established relief camps, conducted rescue sorties, and provided medical services. The National Disaster Management Authority, led by a lieutenant-general, is central to managing aid. The military's efforts are also seen as a means to maintain its public image. Political tensions are evident, with former Prime Minister Imran Khan commenting on the army chief's appointment amidst the crisis. The article suggests the necessity for civilian and military cooperation to address the humanitarian situation.

Pakistan’s Police Brave Islamist Violence — Alone

01 May 2021  |  thediplomat.com
The article discusses the challenges faced by the Pakistani police, particularly in light of recent violent protests by the far-right religious group Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP). The TLP has been involved in deadly protests following the arrest of their leader, Saad Hussain Rizvi, and has used arms against law enforcement. The police force is described as ill-equipped and poorly supported, with over 300 officers injured and at least two killed in clashes. The article highlights the lack of condemnation from police leadership and the government, and the frustration among the police ranks. It also mentions the support of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for the TLP's protests and the potential for future collaboration between militant groups. The author suggests that the police force's poor reputation and lack of proper training and support undermine its effectiveness in counterterrorism and maintaining law and order, contrasting with the more positive image of the military and other law enforcement agencies.

The Gulf nation helped broker a ceasefire between the South Asian nations and now wants to facilitate the exchange of ambassadors.

Thank you Trump: that tweet was just what China needed to tame Pakistan

05 Jan 2018  |  South China Morning Post
The article discusses the tension between the United States and Pakistan following a tweet by President Trump criticizing Pakistan for not doing enough to combat terrorism. Trump's tweet led to the suspension of US military assistance to Pakistan, amounting to over $1 billion. The article suggests that Trump's actions may push Pakistan closer to China and Russia, as China defends Pakistan's counterterrorism efforts and seeks to advance the CPEC project. The Central Bank of Pakistan has also allowed the use of the Chinese currency for bilateral trade, indicating a shift towards China. The article also touches on the internal debate in Pakistan regarding the transparency of CPEC projects and the potential for increased Chinese influence. It concludes by noting the rise in anti-US sentiment in Pakistan and the strengthening of Islamist groups due to the US's hardline stance.

The Sectarian Dilemma in Pakistan

08 Sep 2015  |  Foreign Policy
Pakistan's intensified counterterrorism efforts under the National Action Plan have reduced terror attacks but failed to address sectarian militancy. Sectarian violence has surged, with groups like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, and others continuing their activities despite being outlawed. These groups have political ties, local support through madrassas, and links with the Islamic State. The challenge of combating sectarian groups is complex, involving both military and regulatory actions, and poses significant risks and costs. The state's historical promotion of religious conservatism has entrenched these groups, making any solution difficult and costly.

The Camp David of Pakistan

17 Jul 2015  |  Foreign Policy
Murree, a hill station in Pakistan, hosted a significant meeting between the Afghan government and the Taliban, potentially marking a breakthrough in the region's peace efforts. The meeting was driven by mutual security concerns, the Taliban's summer offensive, and the growing threat of the Islamic State. Key participants included representatives from the Afghan government, the Northern Alliance, and the Haqqani Network. Despite historical distrust, there is a cautious optimism about Pakistan's role in facilitating peace. The presence of the Islamic State has further motivated regional cooperation, with future meetings planned to continue the peace process.
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