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Check FAQAbout Al
Al Emid is a journalist based in Toronto, Canada. He has extensive experience both in being a correspondent and co-ordinatingl large numbers of correspondents around the world. His byline currently appears in the Untied States, Canada and several Middle Eastern countries. As well as being located in Canada, he has deep and broad experience in writing about the Middle East and has traveled through parts of it on assignment.He also has strong experience in writing about Africa.
He also has extensive experience in radio and currently produces and anchors a radio program entitled American Narratives for which he pulls in analysts and journalists from across the U.S. and globally.
He is also the author of several books, most recently What You Need to Know About ISIS listed on all major book sites.
FURTHER NOTES:
1. Possible trip to the Middle East in January 2022. Available fo rassignment
2. Recent topics have been as diverse as Canadian real estate, the Middle East and Mongolia
3. Generally available during the holiday season
4. Based in downtown Toronto - can move quickly to most breaking stories
5. Travel negotiable
6. Comfortable in the Middle East
7. Some familiarity with New York
8. Some familiarity with Los Angeles
English
Portfolio
This Week Will Be Jam-Packed With Clues About the Rest of 2020
These Are the Most Volatile Times for Those Whose Wealth Depends on the Stock Market
Market volatility is at a high, with North American and European indicators showing fluctuations. Shares of TESLA, Uber, and General Motors rose due to positive business developments. Analysts suggest markets are looking ahead 3-6 months, focusing on vaccine rollouts and fiscal stimulus. Upcoming bank reports from JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are anticipated to provide insights into consumer loans, spending, and corporate strategies. Meanwhile, the FBI warns of potential armed protests at all state capitals, which could impact economic stability. Despite potential disturbances, investment decisions should not be swayed, with long-term implications expected to be limited. Investors are advised to rely on professional financial advice and maintain investment discipline during these volatile times.
We’re in a Year-End Santa Rally, but It’s Going To Be a Muted One
North American and European markets are showing signs of a year-end 'Santa rally,' though it is expected to be muted. Market volatility is anticipated to continue into 2021, with no immediate threat of a crash. Factors such as the need for a stimulus plan, low interest rates, and the impact of COVID-19 vaccines are influencing the market. TESLA Inc. surged after a 'Buy' rating from Goldman Sachs, while Pfizer Inc. experienced a drop due to potential supply chain issues. The housing market is showing signs of slowing but remains strong. Analysts from various financial institutions provided insights into the current market conditions and future expectations.
The Stock Market Sees a Lot of Bright News on the Horizon
North American and European stock markets are poised to open negatively, despite recent gains from companies like TESLA, Uber, and General Motors, attributed to future growth prospects. Market sentiment is influenced by expectations of vaccine rollouts, fiscal stimulus, and upcoming bank reports. However, potential armed protests in all fifty state capitals and the recent Washington D.C. riots add an element of uncertainty. Investment decisions should consider volatility, portfolio contents, investment discipline, and quality financial advice.
Tunisia: Seeking FDI
Tunisia presents opportunities for foreign direct investment (FDI), though challenges such as indecisive policymaking, protectionism, and social unrest persist. FDI decreased in 2020, exacerbated by the pandemic and political instability. Despite this, Tunisia's skilled workforce, natural resources, and proximity to the European market make it attractive. Investment regulations have been restructured to encourage FDI, attracting various foreign companies. However, social unrest and high unemployment present risks, leading to a cautious investment outlook. The article also pays tribute to Al Emid, the columnist who passed away, noting his contributions to financial journalism and his insights into the Middle East and developing nations.
Colombia On The Upswing
Colombia is recovering from the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, with shrinking demand and supply shocks affecting inflation. The country is now seeing renewed foreign direct investment interest, partly due to the United States-Colombia Free Trade Agreement. Colombia's strategic location, connectivity with the US, and educated workforce are highlighted as advantages. Investment opportunities in technology, consumer goods, and infrastructure are noted, despite challenges such as complex security issues. The capture of a major drug trafficker and the upcoming elections with a leftist leading candidate add to the uncertainties facing Colombia's economic future.
Bahrain's Growth Continues
Bahrain is implementing post-pandemic growth strategies, focusing on diversifying its economy and attracting foreign direct investment (FDI). The Economic Development Board is actively promoting FDI, and the government has improved contract laws and allows 100% foreign ownership in most sectors. Top-tier companies across various industries have invested in Bahrain. Despite these efforts, Bahrain faces economic challenges, including a low credit rating and high borrowing costs. The non-oil sector contracted by 7% in 2020, but the World Bank projects a potential GDP growth of 3.3% in 2021. Bahrain's economy is highly dependent on oil prices, which adds volatility to its GDP and influences government policymaking.
The Dangers Of Fad Investing
The article discusses the rise of 'fad investing' in the stock market, where investments are made based on trends rather than company fundamentals. It highlights the risks associated with meme stocks, cryptocurrencies, cannabis stocks, and SPACs, emphasizing the high risk-reward ratio. The article provides expert opinions on the speculative nature of these investments and the need for caution, especially for those nearing retirement. Regulatory scrutiny, such as the SEC's action against Momentus and Stable Road, is also mentioned. Despite concerns, the trend of fad investing is expected to continue.
Tanzania: Priming Commercial Possibilities
Tanzania's political stability and consistent economic growth make it an attractive destination for foreign investors. The country is a key player in regional markets and trade organizations such as the East African Community and the AfCFTA. Its tourism sector has drawn major hotel chains, and the consumer sector includes companies like Diageo. Despite rumors, the petroleum multinational Total remains invested in Tanzania. However, recent government policies have created a challenging business environment, and the country's late adoption of a Covid-19 vaccination program reflects the controversial legacy of former President John Magufuli. The new President, Samia Suluhu Hassan, is taking steps to address the pandemic more openly and boost economic recovery, which may influence future investment decisions.
Ethiopia: Getting Back to Business
Ethiopia, previously a frontier market overperformer, experienced growth between 8.3% and 11.2% from 2011 to 2019, driven by government infrastructure spending, agricultural exports, low-cost manufacturing, and natural resources like gold. Foreign companies and over 90% foreign-owned companies in industrial parks have contributed to this growth. However, the COVID-19 crisis and a civil war in Tigray have cast doubt on the sustainability of this progress, with the government revising growth forecasts down and the IMF predicting zero growth. Challenges for investors include political instability, corruption, and a judicial system susceptible to high-level influence. Despite these issues, less than 10% of companies see the court system as a major business constraint.
Roberto Azevêdo A Hard Act To Follow
Roberto Azevêdo's early resignation as director-general of the World Trade Organization presents challenges for his successor amid a mixed legacy, increased trade tensions, and a global economy impacted by the pandemic. The Trade Facilitation Agreement was a notable success during his tenure, but no major tariff reductions were achieved. The selection of a new director-general is complicated by the US-China trade battle and the WTO's limited power structure. The pandemic's exposure of supply chain fragilities and the rise of regional trade blocs could further impact global free-trade, while a global recession might strengthen support for the WTO.
Kenya: Steady Growth, With Challenges
Kenya has experienced steady economic growth, led by the services sector, with projected GDP growth of 6% in 2020 and a slight deceleration to 5.8% in 2021 by Fitch Ratings. The services sector, dominated by tourism and financial services, is a significant contributor to the GDP, alongside agriculture and industry. Challenges include a high budget deficit, inefficient revenue collections, and concerns over financing infrastructure improvements. Terrorism, particularly from Al-Shabaab, poses a threat to security and foreign direct investment. The government's counterterrorism efforts and policies are under scrutiny due to ongoing attacks.
Argentina: Bucking Austerity
Alberto Fernández's election as president of Argentina marks a shift from the austerity measures of his predecessor, Mauricio Macri, to a Peronist approach that includes increased taxes on wealth, frozen utility rates, and financial relief for various social groups. Despite some positive fiscal developments, the country's economic future remains uncertain, with challenges such as a 'virtual default' on national debt and the need for political support from the opposition. The vice president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, also faces corruption charges, which could impact investment and growth.
Middle East Business Climate Improving
The World Bank's Doing Business 2020 report indicates that Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain, and Kuwait are among the top 10 most improved nations for ease of doing business, with reforms in various policy areas to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). Saudi Arabia saw an increase in net FDI inflows in 2018, while Jordan experienced a decrease despite improvements. Bahrain's net FDI inflows increased significantly, whereas Kuwait had negative FDI flows in 2018. Atif Kubursi, a professor emeritus, cautions that structural issues remain despite these improvements. The four countries differ economically and politically, with Saudi Arabia having a strong economy but involved in regional conflicts, and Jordan being open for business but economically fragile.
Sudan's Delicate Balance
Sudan is undergoing political and economic reform following the overthrow of dictator Omar al-Bashir. The transitional coalition government appointed former World Bank economist Ibrahim Elbadawi as finance minister to address issues such as mismanagement, corruption, and economic instability exacerbated by the secession of oil-rich South Sudan in 2011. The current government, a mix of military and civilian factions, plans for democratic elections in 2022. Sudan's economy benefits from fertile land, agriculture, foreign investment, and income from oil transportation. Support from Saudi Arabia and the UAE has also been significant.
Senegal: Strength In Diversity
Senegal's economy is diverse, with mining, construction, and services, particularly transport, forming its backbone. The country's credit profile is stable, and it is expected to grow by 6.6% annually until 2020. The Emerging Senegal Plan aims to drive growth through fiscal consolidation, diversification, and investment in infrastructure and education. Senegal also plans to electrify the entire country by 2025 with support from international institutions. The stable macroeconomic environment and membership in the West African Economic and Monetary Union provide a favorable climate for investment and banking. However, challenges such as high public debt and environmental risks due to the significant agricultural sector persist, alongside structural barriers in the financial sector that limit credit access for SMEs.
Nicaragua's Political Impasse
Nicaragua's economy is facing a significant downturn with GDP contracting and investor confidence at its lowest since 2007. The decline follows a period of steady growth and collaboration between government, business, and labor groups. A government crackdown on protests over social security reforms has led to over 300 deaths and a breakdown in stakeholder talks. The tourism, auto, and medical-equipment sectors have seen substantial sales drops. External factors such as reduced aid from Venezuela and US sanctions, as well as internal issues like corruption, are exacerbating the situation. Despite these challenges, remittances have increased, and the banking system remains healthy. An early election could potentially resolve the political deadlock, but President Ortega has rejected proposals for an earlier election date.
Uganda: Stability At A Price
Uganda is perceived as stable due to President Yoweri Museveni's long-term rule since 1986, but underlying political instability exists with protests, violence, and human rights concerns. The economy benefits from resources and services, with potential in agriculture, tourism, and foreign direct investment. However, economic disparities persist, and Uganda faces competition from neighbors like Rwanda and Kenya in attracting investment. The informal economy also significantly impacts government tax revenues.
Bulgaria: Striking A Balance
Bulgaria offers several advantages for foreign investors, including a supportive government, low taxes, and EU membership, which facilitates access to other member countries. Despite these benefits and steady EU financial transfers, Bulgaria faces significant challenges such as corruption, which is evident in the judiciary and crucial sectors like infrastructure and energy. This corruption has led to a decline in foreign direct investment and the exit of companies like CEZ. The country's low labor costs also contribute to a population decline as skilled workers emigrate for better opportunities.
Estonia: Increasingly Independent
Estonia has transitioned from a communist-style command economy to a capitalist-oriented market economy since the Soviet Union's dissolution in 1991, joining various international organizations and adopting the euro. The country has attracted foreign direct investment by leveraging its skilled workforce and advanced e-services, with significant contributions to IT development such as Skype. Estonia faces challenges like rising labor costs and a skilled IT professional shortage, prompting recruitment from abroad. Additionally, Estonia aims to reduce its energy dependence on Russia by 2025.
Emerging and Frontier Markets
Moats, Money and the Markets
Book launch of my first book entitled What I Have Learned So Far ... And How It Can Help You
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: A Transformation in Progress
The article by Al Emid discusses the historical and recent transformations of Saudi Arabia, highlighting its evolving foreign policy and domestic changes. It outlines the Kingdom's shift from a behind-the-scenes approach to a more public and assertive role in regional and international affairs, including its involvement in Yemen, the dispute with Qatar, and a surprising alliance with Israel. The article also touches on Saudi Arabia's changing relationship with the United States, the tension with the United Arab Emirates, and the complex dynamics with Russia and Iran. Additionally, it covers the Kingdom's anti-corruption drive and the ambitious Vision 2030 economic plan aimed at diversifying the economy and reducing oil dependency. The article features insights from experts like Gerald M Feierstein, Atif Kubursi, Anna Borshchevskaya, and Graham Griffiths, who analyze the implications of these changes for the region and the potential for conflict or cooperation.
At the Crossroads: Saudi Arabia's Uncertain Future
The article by Al Emid discusses the complex crossroads at which Saudi Arabia stands, affecting its internal dynamics and international relations. The Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's anti-corruption sweep has recalibrated the business-political nexus and gained public support, but it may deter foreign investment. Socially, the country has made progressive changes, such as granting women more rights, which align with its Vision 2030 plan. Geopolitically, Saudi Arabia faces ongoing tensions with Iran and has developed a surprising cooperation with Israel. The relationship with Russia is also evolving, with Saudi investments in Russia potentially influencing the dynamic. Militarily, the challenges in Yemen and Syria persist with no easy solutions. Economically, Saudi Arabia must address falling oil prices and diversify its economy, with the success of Vision 2030 still uncertain. The article highlights the uncertainties facing the country, including the population's acceptance of new taxes and the effectiveness of government stimulus packages.
Heading into 2018, different aims for US foreign policy in the region
The article discusses the evolution of American foreign policy in the Middle East, highlighting the changes from the Cold War era to the present under President Donald Trump's administration. It outlines the US's historical alliances with Israel and Iran, and contrasts with the USSR's interests in the region. The article emphasizes the current US foreign policy's three broad aims: support for Israel, focus on Islamic extremism, and curbing Iran's influence. It also touches on the reduced American reliance on GCC oil, the Asia pivot, and the potential flash points in 2018, including the possibility of war in the Middle East. The article features insights from Henry Smith of Control Risks and Atif Kubursi of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission, discussing the geopolitical landscape, the impact of Trump's policies, and the potential for conflict in the region.
Mega Cities, Mega Development
African cities are facing challenges in infrastructure and economic development due to rapidly growing urban populations. The United Nations forecasts that by 2030, Dar es Salaam, Johannesburg, and Luanda will become megacities with populations exceeding 10 million. High fertility rates contribute significantly to this growth. Experts like Somik V. Lall from the World Bank and Melissa Cook from African Sunrise Partners highlight the importance of urban planning and the potential for foreign direct investment in agribusiness to encourage economic conditions that prevent mass rural-to-urban migration. Political risks and public policy solutions, such as prioritizing basic city infrastructure, are also discussed. Specific cases like Tanzania's export ban on unprocessed ore and South Africa's local content requirements illustrate the varied challenges and limitations faced by different countries.
This article looks at the future of Toronto as a financial hub.
One of numerous articles on the Middle East - this one looks at the Gulf's reputation as a safe haven.
Al Emid and Gavin Graham discuss the differences between active and passive management.in mutual funds
Serbia: Austerity Rules
Serbia has undergone fiscal stabilization at a high cost, including pension and salary cutbacks, to prepare for EU accession and attract foreign investment. Despite the austerity measures, the country has maintained political and social stability. Serbia's government is negotiating with Chinese companies for the takeover of RTB Bor, a copper mining and smelting company. The country offers several advantages to foreign investors, such as low-cost labor and a favorable corporate tax rate. Serbia's non-EU status allows it to export to Russia without sanctions, a strategy used by Fiat. However, Serbia's small economy is vulnerable to global economic shifts, and the fluctuating Serbian dinar poses financial challenges. The future acceptance of austerity measures, Russia's regional influence, and unclear American foreign policy are uncertainties affecting foreign direct investment decisions.
Botswana: In The Zones
Botswana is leveraging Special Economic Zones to attract foreign direct investment, capitalizing on its status as the most attractive economy for such investments in Africa according to the Africa Investment Index 2016. The country's stable political environment, low corruption, and solid GDP growth are key factors. Multinationals like 3M and Nike have been drawn to Botswana, although FDI has decreased since 2011. Challenges include a reliance on mining and a complicated work-permit system. The government is focused on diversifying the economy and has established a special agency to coordinate activities in the Special Economic Zones.
Global Finance Magazine
The article discusses the history and impact of microfinance, highlighting its role in providing financial services to impoverished individuals in emerging and frontier markets. It traces the origins of modern microfinance to Accion International in the 1960s, Grameen Bank founded by Muhammad Yunus, and the Foundation for International Community Assistance (Finca) established by John Hatch. The sector, supported by organizations like Oikocredit International and responsAbility Investments, has seen successes such as the growth of small businesses and a change in attitudes towards the poor. However, it has not achieved its most ambitious goal of eradicating poverty. The future of microfinance faces challenges, particularly concerning the accessibility and cost of capital for the 300 million people who use microcredit services.
The drop in oil prices is having varied effects in the Middle East. How countries respond could determine their long-term prospects.
The article discusses the impact of falling oil prices on Middle Eastern countries, highlighting the varying fiscal break-even oil prices and how these affect each country's vulnerability to oil price drops. It mentions the business-as-usual attitude of Gulf banks and the potential risks associated with the age of rulers in the region. The article also covers the focus of Middle Eastern banks on renewable energy, infrastructure development, and growth strategies, including risk management and expansion into Africa. It features insights from CEOs and senior executives of various banks and financial institutions, such as Gulf Bank, National Bank of Abu Dhabi, International Bank of Qatar, and Qatar National Bank, as well as consultants from Control Risks and Silk Invest.
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