On the 86th anniversary of Mexico's nationalization of oil, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador reaffirmed his commitment to the state-owned oil company Pemex, drawing parallels to the actions of former President Lázaro Cárdenas. He criticized the premature shift to clean energies and warned against foreign dependence in this sector. Pemex, despite being the world's most indebted oil company, has seen an increase in production and financial support from the government. López Obrador's administration has focused on refining domestic crude oil and maintaining low fuel prices, opposing the broader trend of transitioning to renewable energy technologies.

Yox Holding, part of Xoy Capital, is under investigation for a fraud scheme involving 'sports trading' that has affected around 40,000 investors across Mexico, with an estimated fraud amount of 33.6 million pesos. The company promised attractive returns through investments in various sports teams. The Fiscalía de Jalisco conducted raids and secured documents related to the fraud. The financial regulator CNBV had previously issued an alert about companies like Yox operating without proper legal status. Yox has acknowledged financial difficulties and announced a restructuring plan. The scandal has also raised concerns among Real Betis basketball fans in Spain.

The article discusses the shift in trade dynamics between the United States, China, and Mexico. It highlights how Mexico has benefited from the U.S.'s anti-China policies, including tariffs and technology export restrictions, by overtaking China as the top exporter to the U.S. in 2023. The U.S. Census Bureau data shows Mexico's exports to the U.S. surpassing China's for the first 11 months of 2023. The piece also touches on the concept of nearshoring and the potential for Chinese companies to move operations to Mexico. Additionally, it mentions foreign direct investment trends, citing the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development's data, with the U.S. leading in FDI received and as an investor, followed by Brazil, China, and Japan, with Canada and Mexico tied for third.

Economic growth in Latin America and the Caribbean slowed to 2.2% in 2023, down from 3.9% in 2022, with the World Bank projecting a slight improvement to 2.3% in 2024. High inflation, restrictive financial conditions, weak trade, and adverse climate events hindered investment and production growth in 2023. The World Bank's report, which revised growth forecasts for Brazil and Mexico upwards, anticipates that the impact of China's growth slowdown on commodity prices will be limited, and inflation in the region is expected to decelerate, aligning with national targets by the end of 2024. Central banks are expected to reduce rates, potentially boosting investment in 2024 and 2025. However, fiscal policy could negatively impact growth. Brazil showed better-than-expected agricultural production, private consumption, and exports, while Mexico's private consumption and investment exceeded forecasts. Other major economies like Argentina, Colombia, and Peru experienced weaker growth, with recent surveys indicating a decline in business confidence and manufacturing activity.

The World Bank has slightly raised its economic growth forecast for Mexico to 2.6% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025, a deceleration compared to the 3.6% growth expected for the previous year. The forecast for this year is 0.1% higher than the October announcement. Despite higher inflation rates, the World Bank is more optimistic about Mexico than the Latin American region on average. The Mexican Government, led by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, projects a GDP growth of between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2024, aiming for a third consecutive year of growth above the U.S. economy with macroeconomic stability and healthy public finances.

Thirty years after the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) came into effect, its impact on Mexico's economy is undeniable, with a 950% growth in exports. However, the agreement, now known as the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), has not fulfilled its promise of economic development, particularly in the south of Mexico, which still faces high poverty levels. The trade liberalization has also inadvertently facilitated drug trafficking and undocumented migration. The current geopolitical context and the nearshoring trend present Mexico with new opportunities as companies look to relocate from China. The country's future success will depend on whether it can capitalize on these opportunities without repeating past mistakes.

Mexico's recent international bond issuance, the largest in its recent history, was met with high demand from Wall Street, with requests tripling the offered amount. This occurred despite criticisms of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's protectionist energy sector policies and agricultural trade disputes with the U.S. Factors such as nearshoring, a strong currency, and economic expansion contributed to Mexico securing relatively low interest rates. Mexico placed $7.5 billion in debt, surpassing the total debt issued in recent years, and signaling fiscal and economic strength. Despite concerns over energy sector legislation and GMO corn import bans, Mexico's narrative as an attractive investment destination prevailed. Financial strategist Luis Gonzali highlighted Mexico's reduced risk premium and favorable debt issuance conditions. The Mexican economy's resilience and improvement were noted, with the country's debt level below 48% of GDP, despite a significant budget deficit aimed at funding infrastructure projects and social spending.

Mexico's recent international bond issuance, the largest in its recent history, was met with high demand from Wall Street, with requests tripling the offered amount. This occurred despite criticisms of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's policies, which are seen as protective of state monopolies in the energy sector and confrontational in agriculture trade with the U.S. Factors such as the nearshoring narrative, a strong exchange rate, and economic expansion have enabled Mexico to pay relatively low interest rates. Mexico placed $7.5 billion in debt, surpassing the total debt issued in recent years, and signaling fiscal and economic strength. The country's economic performance is currently favored in Wall Street's view. Despite the global increase in debt costs, Mexico secured favorable rates. The Mexican Deputy Finance Minister Gabriel Yorio stated that the debt level is below 48% of GDP, although this represents a significant increase, with the deficit budgeted at 4.9% of GDP for 2024, primarily for infrastructure projects and social spending.

Mexico has made a record issuance of $7.5 billion in debt bonds, the largest in its history, which was met with high demand from international markets. Despite criticisms of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's protectionist energy policies and trade tensions with the U.S., Mexico's strong economic performance and favorable exchange rates have allowed it to secure low rates for its debt. The issuance was strategically timed to showcase fiscal strength and precede other issuers. Financial strategist Luis Gonzali from Franklin Templeton highlighted the reduced country risk and the attractive rates negotiated. The funds raised will support López Obrador's infrastructure projects and social spending, with a budget deficit that is the highest since 1989. The upcoming presidential election in June will be pivotal in determining the future approach to Mexico's indebtedness.

2023 is shaping up to be a record year for remittances sent to Mexico, primarily from workers in the United States, with predictions estimating a total between 63 and 64 billion dollars once December data is included. As of November, Mexico received 57.796 billion dollars, nearly surpassing the total from the previous year. Remittances have grown at a rate double that of the Mexican economy, with a 43-month consecutive growth streak starting in May 2020. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has labeled the increase in remittances a success of his administration, despite criticism linking migration to a lack of economic opportunities in Mexico. The remittances have been increasing annually, even during the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. A study by Signos Vitales sparked controversy by claiming that a portion of the remittances from the US in 2022 was drug money. Additionally, the migration crisis impacts the flow of remittances to Mexico, with many migrants from Latin America staying in Mexico and receiving money from family while awaiting US asylum processing.

Mexico's Finance Ministry has successfully conducted its largest debt placement in international markets, issuing $7.5 billion in sovereign bonds. This move is part of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's strategy to increase debt to finance additional government spending in an election year. The placement has positioned Mexico as the largest sovereign issuer with a BBB rating, which is the lowest investment grade according to major credit risk agencies. The bonds were issued in three tranches with varying maturities and interest rates, and the demand was nearly three times the amount offered. The Ministry highlighted the favorable financial conditions achieved, which are expected to set a positive precedent for future issuances by Mexican entities.

Mexico has emerged as a potential nearshoring destination for companies looking to relocate closer to the U.S. market amidst the U.S.-China trade war. Despite a record foreign direct investment in Mexico and the country's appreciation against the dollar, the actual economic impact and benefits for Mexicans remain to be seen. The trend's future largely depends on the U.S. economy, with which Mexico is deeply integrated. The Mexican government, under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has focused on trade with the U.S. as a growth strategy, even before nearshoring became a popular term. Concerns for foreign companies considering Mexico include water scarcity and electricity shortages, exemplified by Tesla's delayed factory construction.

Latin America's economic growth exceeded expectations in 2023 with an estimated expansion of over 2%, despite the worst drought since 1944 and challenges containing inflation and social unrest. Panama, Paraguay, and Costa Rica showed high growth rates, while Argentina and Chile faced economic contractions. The El Niño phenomenon caused significant agricultural losses in the southern cone. Argentina's payment capacity was affected by the drought, and Colombia struggled with high inflation. Social unrest in Peru likely led to a recession. For 2024, Latin America's economic expansion is expected to remain below the global average due to political uncertainty and lack of competitiveness.

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has criticized the new Argentine government's efforts to suppress social protests, labeling them as authoritarian and hypocritical. The Argentine administration, led by Javier Milei, has introduced a protocol to penalize street blockades as a form of social protest against budget cuts and is working on a bill to change 664 articles affecting the country's political, social, and economic structures. López Obrador argues that civil society is inhibited by harsh measures and warns against falling into the trap of authoritarianism, citing past dictatorships in Argentina and Chile as examples. He commends the labor unions for their orderly conduct during a recent protest that resulted in at least six arrests.

The state-owned electricity company, Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), has accelerated its energy infrastructure projects ahead of the 2024 election year. CFE announced a partnership with Grupo Carso to build a gas pipeline in northwest Mexico. This follows a series of projects including a $2.7 billion natural gas supply contract with ArcelorMittal and a service agreement with Elon Musk's Starlink for internet services. CFE is also investing $24 billion to increase electricity generation capacity nationwide. The largest project is a marine pipeline connecting Veracruz and Tabasco, in collaboration with TC Energy. Despite initial resistance to private partnerships under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's administration, there has been a shift towards collaboration. This public investment surge has contributed to economic expansion, with analysts suggesting it may favor the ruling party in the upcoming presidential election.

The Mexican state electricity company, Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE), has renewed a 10-year contract to supply natural gas from Waha, West Texas, to ArcelorMittal, the world's second-largest steel producer. The deal, facilitated by CFE's private subsidiary CFE International, is valued at $2.7 billion and positions ArcelorMittal as a major consumer of natural gas in Mexico. President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has criticized previous administration's commitments to purchase Texan natural gas as 'excessive,' and some of these contracts are under arbitration after CFE refused to pay high prices during a freeze in February 2021 that affected Texas's hydrocarbon production.

Gabriel Lozano, Chief Economist for JP Morgan in Mexico, was surprised by the strong expansion of the Mexican economy this year. The post-pandemic initial boost was expected, but fixed investment saw a significant leap. Lozano, with 11 years at JPMorgan Chase, notes that Mexico is in a 'virtuous circle' with a mix of increased consumption and investment driving momentum into the first half of next year. However, he anticipates a slowdown to 2.7% growth in 2024. Inflation is unlikely to hit the 3% target set by Banco de México, which may lead to an interest rate cut by March. The nearshoring phenomenon is cautiously viewed by Lozano, who prefers to speak of investment relocation, a trend over the past 20 years. The TMEC provides a protective umbrella for investors, and the upcoming US presidential election could influence economic narratives, particularly regarding migration and foreign investment, such as from China. Energy sector concerns and fiscal deterioration due to social assistance programs and pensions are also highlighted as challenges for the Mexican government.

Moody's credit rating agency reports that Mexico stands out as a safe investment destination in Latin America despite regional challenges. The report, authored by Martina Gallardo, Marcos Schmidt, and Marianna Waltz, notes Mexico's economic integration with the United States positions it to benefit from foreign investment shifting from China. However, infrastructure limitations, climate change risks, and public policies are obstacles to growth. The report also highlights regulatory risks under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's administration, particularly interventions in various sectors and the military's increased role in productive activities. Moody's anticipates that Mexico's legal and judicial systems will review government measures for consistency with existing legal frameworks, potentially limiting actions that exceed legal boundaries.

The Bank of Mexico has decided to maintain its interest rate at 11.25%, marking the sixth consecutive time the rate has remained unchanged, which is the highest in history. Despite persistent inflation risks, the central bank expects a disinflationary process to continue, influenced by monetary policy and the mitigation of shocks from the pandemic and the Ukraine war. However, forecasts for food and service inflation have been revised upwards, leading to a slight increase in general and core inflation projections. Market analysts had anticipated this decision, and according to a Citibanamex survey, the first rate cut is expected in the first half of 2024.

Gita Gopinath, deputy managing director of the IMF, discussed the current state of global trade and the potential for a new Cold War-like economic fragmentation at the World Congress of the International Economic Association. Despite increased trade restrictions and a redirection of trade flows and foreign direct investment, Gopinath does not see a deglobalization process but rather a fragmentation where countries like Mexico and Vietnam could become 'connecting countries' for trade. She highlighted Latin America's potential role in supplying 'green minerals' and food in the fragmented trade landscape. The IMF recommends strengthening the WTO to address national security-based economic policies and to mitigate retaliatory trade measures. Gopinath also emphasized the importance of decarbonizing trade as part of the broader economic activity to ensure a successful energy transition.

Gita Gopinath, Deputy Managing Director of the IMF, warned against the onset of a new Cold War amidst the weakening global growth prospects and the disproportionate scars from the pandemic and the war slowing income convergence between rich and poor nations. Speaking at the IEA World Congress in Medellín, Colombia, and in an interview with EL PAÍS, Gopinath discussed the geopolitical tension between the world's largest economies and their allies, the potential role of Latin America in the energy transition, and the current state of global trade and fragmentation. She emphasized the importance of strengthening the WTO to address security-based concerns and the need for countries to avoid retaliatory trade measures that could lead to further fragmentation and hinder the green transition.

The Mexican Employers' Confederation (Coparmex) has criticized President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's proposal to eliminate autonomous regulatory bodies such as INAI, IFT, Cofece, and CRE, stating it would be a significant setback for democracy in Mexico. The existence of these regulators is a requirement for membership in the T-MEC trade agreement with the United States and Canada. The AFTE has expressed concern to the White House Trade Representative about Mexico's compliance with T-MEC obligations. Coparmex represents 36,000 companies and emphasizes the importance of defending the rights these organizations protect against various acts of power.

Canadian mining company First Quantum Minerals is set to cease operations in Panama following a Supreme Court ruling that declared its contract unconstitutional. The company, which has been operating the largest copper mine in Central America, is facing backlash from citizens and environmental concerns. The closure will impact 7,000 employees and over 30,000 people indirectly. CEO Tristan Pascall acknowledges the need for better communication and environmental responsibility. The company invested $10 billion since 2013, and the recent protests reflect broader discontent ahead of Panama's elections. The article also discusses the global demand for copper due to electrification and the challenges of establishing new mines. It touches on the reputation of Canadian mining companies in the Global South and First Quantum's efforts to transition to more sustainable practices.

Canadian mining company First Quantum Minerals, through its subsidiary Minera Panamá, is preparing to leave Panama following historical protests and a Supreme Court ruling that led President Laurentino Cortizo to cancel their contract. The company had been operating Central America's largest copper mine and had secured an extension to work for 40 more years, sparking public outrage over open-pit mining moratorium violations. CEO Tristan Pascall acknowledged the need for better communication and environmental responsibility as the mine's closure will impact 7,000 employees and 30,000 indirectly. The global demand for copper is rising due to technology electrification, posing challenges for sustainable operations in the industry.

Grupo Televisa, a major Mexican media company, is undergoing structural changes, transitioning from a traditional television broadcaster to a telecommunications firm. The company's stock has suffered, losing nearly 80% of its value since 2018, and was further impacted when S&P Global downgraded its debt rating. Despite this, investment bank reports suggesting the stock was undervalued led to a market rebound. Televisa has been divesting non-telecom businesses, such as casinos and live entertainment, and merged content assets with Univisión in 2020 to form TelevisaUnivisión. The subsidiary faced criticism for an interview with Donald Trump, reflecting the challenges of content business in the era of social media and streaming platforms. Televisa's total debt stands at 90 billion pesos, with considerations to sell its stake in TelevisaUnivisión to reduce leverage.

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has announced its intention to allocate $150 billion to climate change containment projects over the next decade, aiming to triple such financing and become the first development bank to meet the G-20's recommendations. In 2024, the IDB will lead the Multilateral Development Banks and Regional Development Banks, working with the Brazilian G-20 Presidency on reform. The IDB also plans to launch the 'Amazonia Forever' program, dedicating $5 billion to protect the Amazon's biodiversity and support sustainable development, with funds from member states and a recapitalization of IDB Invest. The announcement coincides with the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) in Dubai, where IDB President Ilan Goldfajn emphasized the need for MDBs to improve coordination and harmonize rules for climate and nature projects.

The Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) plans to invest 150 billion dollars in climate change mitigation and adaptation projects in Latin America over the next decade, aiming to triple such funding and become the first development bank to meet the G-20's recommendation. The announcement was made during the United Nations Conference on Climate Change (COP28) in Dubai. The IDB will create a program called 'Amazonia Siempre' to protect the Amazon region, committing up to 5 billion dollars in additional financing. The IDB's president, Ilan Goldfajn, emphasized the importance of harmonizing multilateral development bank operations and engaging the private sector to achieve the necessary scale and impact.

Mexico's trade deficit decreased to $252 million in October, down from a deficit of $2.088 billion in the same month last year, as reported by the National Institute of Geography and Statistics (Inegi). Exports, driven largely by the automotive sector, rose by 5.6% year-on-year, with the United States being the main recipient. Imports increased by 1.8% compared to last October, attributed to the strong appreciation of the Mexican peso against the dollar. Analysts from Banorte noted the period's moderate oil prices and stable transportation costs despite local disruptions. Alicia Bárcena from the Mexican Foreign Ministry urged the country to seize the opportunity presented by the geopolitical tensions between China and the U.S., which are prompting a shift of factories to U.S. allies like Mexico.

Argentina faces challenges in the potential privatization of state energy company YPF, previously expropriated in 2012. Legal proceedings in the US remain unresolved, with a New York judge ordering Argentina to pay $16 billion to Burford Capital and other affected parties. Provinces holding a significant share of YPF's stock present another hurdle. President-elect Javier Milei's privatization plans, including YPF and other state enterprises, have been met with market optimism, but analysts from Fitch question the technical feasibility and political viability of his radical proposals.

The article discusses the potential privatization of Argentina's state energy company, Yacimientos Petroliferos Fiscales (YPF), and the challenges it faces. The company was nationalized in 2012 by the government of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, leading to an ongoing legal battle in the United States. A recent New York court ruling ordered the Argentine State to pay $16 billion in compensation to Burford Capital and other affected companies, a decision Argentina plans to appeal. The article also mentions the historical context of YPF's privatization in the 1990s and the current president-elect Javier Milei's intentions to privatize state companies. The provinces that hold shares in YPF, through the Federal Organization of Hydrocarbon Producing States (OFEPHI), could pose an obstacle to privatization. Despite market optimism and a boost in YPF's share price, analysts from Fitch express skepticism about the technical feasibility and likelihood of Milei's proposed privatizations.

In the upcoming election, Argentina faces a choice between Sergio Massa, the current Minister of Economy, and Javier Milei, an ultraright candidate. Amidst a poverty increase and nearly 120% annual inflation, Massa suggests maintaining a strong state with fixed fiscal goals to reduce inflation and ending the currency exchange control by next year. Milei advocates for dollarization, the abolition of the central bank, and cuts in social aid and government size.

Rogelio Ramírez de la O, Mexico's Secretary of the Treasury, announced at the APEC summit in San Francisco that Mexico is poised to surpass economic growth expectations for the year. He highlighted the country's success in lifting over 5 million people out of poverty and the implementation of social assistance policies by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Mexico recorded a historic $32.9 billion in FDI in the third quarter, with a significant portion being reinvested profits. Analysts from Moody's and other organizations have revised Mexico's growth projections upwards, citing strong investments and the benefits of nearshoring. However, Moody's also noted that the economic benefits of nearshoring are unevenly distributed across Mexico, with certain states facing challenges in attracting FDI due to infrastructure and resource limitations.

In Mexico, the extreme poverty threshold in urban areas increased from 2,112.10 pesos to 2,224.83 pesos between October 2022 and October 2023, marking a 5.3% annual increase in the cost of the basic food basket. Rural extreme poverty income threshold rose from 1,034.91 pesos last year to 1,701.52 pesos. The minimum wage increase and federal government social support have positively impacted formally employed households, with nearly nine million Mexicans leaving poverty between 2020 and 2022. However, 46.8 million Mexicans, or 36.3% of the population, remain in poverty, and 9.1 million, or 7.1%, live in extreme poverty, unable to meet the basic food basket cost of 1,701.52 pesos per person per month.

The article discusses the rising popularity of Chinese-made cars in Mexico, which has become the second-largest importer of Chinese vehicles after Russia. The Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors reports a significant market share for Chinese brands, and there are concerns about the potential impact on the U.S. market. U.S. legislators have expressed worries about China's automotive strategy and have asked for an investigation into Chinese car manufacturers like BYD, Chery, and SAIC Motor. The article also touches on the strategic importance of the automotive industry to Mexico's economy and the potential implications of Chinese investment in the sector. The role of electric and hybrid vehicles is highlighted, with the current tariff-free status of these imports into Mexico being a point of interest in relation to the USMCA trade agreement. The article concludes with comments on the political dimensions of Chinese automotive firms' operations in Mexico and the potential strain on U.S.-Mexico relations.

The Bank of Mexico has unanimously decided to maintain its interest rate at 11.25% for the fifth consecutive time, citing ongoing inflation above the target range of 3-4%. The bank has improved its inflation outlook for the next two quarters, expecting a year-end inflation rate of 4.4% and a rate of 4.3% by the end of the first quarter of 2024. Global risks such as prolonged inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, tighter financial conditions, and financial stability challenges were acknowledged. The central bank's interest rate influences various financial instruments in Mexico and aims to prevent over-indebtedness and excessive economic activity that could drive up prices. The bank anticipates inflation will align with the target range by the second quarter of 2025. The Mexican economy has exceeded growth expectations this year. Fitch analyst Carlos Morales expects the Bank of Mexico to maintain the current interest rate until early 2024 before cautiously reducing it.

The Bank of Mexico unanimously voted to maintain the interest rate at 11.25% for the fifth consecutive time, citing inflation still above the target range of 3-4%. The bank improved its inflation outlook for the next two quarters, expecting a year-end inflation rate of 4.4% and a rate of 4.3% by the end of the first quarter of 2024. Global risks include prolonged inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, tighter financial conditions, and financial stability challenges. The central bank's interest rate impacts the Mexican financial system and the economy by influencing investment through instruments like mortgages and loans. The bank anticipates the inflation rate to converge to the target range by the second quarter of 2025. Carlos Morales of Fitch expects the Bank of Mexico to maintain the current policy rate until early 2024 before cautiously reducing it.

Big business leaders in Mexico are showing a bias towards Claudia Sheinbaum, the former head of Government of Mexico City, as the next president, hoping she will break from the country vision created by López Obrador. Despite Sheinbaum's track record, which includes actions such as canceling construction permits due to alleged corruption, business leaders and Wall Street analysts are optimistic about her potential presidency. They believe she will not represent a continuation of the Fourth Transformation led by López Obrador, drawing parallels with past political shifts in Mexican history.

Latin American countries need to double their current investment in clean and renewable energy projects to meet their carbon emission reduction commitments, according to a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), linked to the OECD. The IEA's first specialized study on the energy outlook of the 33 countries in the region highlights the importance of Latin America's lithium, copper, and silver reserves for the global energy transition. The report suggests that clean energy project financing must double by 2030 to reach 150 billion dollars and increase fivefold by 2050. The IEA report also includes recommendations for governments to reduce CO2 emissions and notes the tension in Central America regarding mining for electrification, exemplified by protests in Panama against a Canadian company's copper mining operations.

The Center for Global Development's study on 37 emerging economies reveals Argentina as the second most vulnerable to global crises, followed by Sri Lanka, with Bolivia and El Salvador also at risk. Colombia's ranking has dropped due to high debt and inflation. The resilience indicator, created using data from the IMF, World Bank, and other sources, assesses debt levels, international reserves, inflation targets, and governance quality. Emerging markets are more vulnerable now than in 2019. Peru, Guatemala, Chile, and Mexico are among the best-prepared, while Brazil remains among the least prepared despite improvements. Latin America has largely contained post-pandemic inflation, with Brazil, Bolivia, the Dominican Republic, and Paraguay meeting central bank targets, contrasting with Colombia's ongoing high cost of living increases.

Pemex and New Fortress Energy have dissolved their agreement to develop Mexico's first deepwater natural gas project at the Lakach field, following tensions and criticism within the energy sector. The project was initially abandoned by Pemex in 2016 due to low profitability but was later revisited with NFE, which lacked deepwater exploration experience. The Comisión Nacional de Hidrocarburos (CNH) was divided on the approval, which was only granted after a change in its commissioner president. NFE's conditions, including purchasing gas from Pemex at a low price, were deemed unacceptable by Mexican officials, leading to the project's halt. Pemex, which reported significant losses, is now seeking other partners to continue the project.

Panamanians are protesting a contract extension for Canadian company First Quantum Minerals to mine copper in a protected area, causing significant economic disruption. The conflict highlights a global dilemma: copper is essential for the energy transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy, but mining can harm local environments and communities. The protests reflect broader issues of resource extraction, environmental protection, and the equitable distribution of benefits from the energy transition. Experts suggest that such conflicts will become more common as copper demand rises. The situation in Panama is ongoing, with legal challenges and debates in Congress about the mine's future.

Thousands of Panamanians have protested against a contract extension allowing Canadian company First Quantum Minerals to continue copper extraction in a protected biological corridor, causing semi-paralysis in the capital and other areas with tourism losses nearing $200 million. The protests reflect a broader debate over the global benefits of electrification and the environmental impact of mining, especially as copper demand is expected to rise by 20% by 2035 due to its key role in the energy transition. The conflict highlights the clash between local environmental concerns and the global push for a clean energy transition, with experts predicting similar situations in countries lacking a strong mining culture.

Santiago Levy, a former Mexican government official and current advisor to the UNDP and researcher at the Brookings Institute, discusses the dysfunctionality of the social contract in Latin America, where many workers are excluded from formal employment benefits. He critiques the increase in Mexico's minimum wage, arguing it makes formal hiring more expensive and does not benefit the majority of informal workers. Levy also comments on the reconfiguration of unions under the USMCA, the controversial effects of pension contributions, and the failure of past reforms to increase formal employment despite significant economic changes since the 1990s.

The United States has eased some financial sanctions on Venezuela, allowing transactions related to the oil and gas sector for the next six months, lifting restrictions imposed since 2019. This change comes as Western countries seek alternative oil sources due to the Russian military offensive in Ukraine and as Venezuela prepares for elections next year. The easing of sanctions has led to increased interest in Venezuelan oil and the possibility of boosting oil production, which could have significant economic implications for the country facing a humanitarian crisis. Wall Street anticipates that increased oil production could revitalize Venezuela's economy, despite the country's reduced capacity to extract and produce crude oil. The American company Chevron is expected to play a major role in the increase of oil production. The future of Venezuela's return to the global market and debt restructuring remains uncertain and is seen as a political bet.

Hurricane Otis, which unexpectedly intensified to a category 5 storm upon hitting Acapulco, Guerrero, caused substantial material damage estimated at 15 billion dollars. The destruction included fallen power transmission towers, destroyed vehicles, and flooded hotels. The hurricane, which also claimed 27 lives, has been described as the most damaging to the tourism industry in the city's history, surpassing previous hurricanes Paulina and Manuel. Damage assessments are complicated due to disrupted telecommunications infrastructure, but the economic impact is significant, with nearly 3 million people experiencing tropical storm-force winds. Chuch Watson of Enki Research and former AHETA president Jorge Laurel González provided insights into the scale of the devastation.

Bacanora Lithium, a subsidiary of Chinese firm Ganfeng Lithium, is challenging the Mexican government's cancellation of its lithium mining concessions in Sonora. Despite the Mexican Congress's approval of legislation in April 2022 declaring lithium a strategic mineral and the creation of a state-owned company, Litio Mx, Bacanora CEO Peter Secker asserts the company's right to defend its permits through the Mexican legal system and does not dismiss international arbitration. Bacanora has invested significantly in Sonora since 2011, discovering substantial lithium reserves and planning an $800-million-dollar production complex. The company has filed an amparo and is awaiting a hearing while remaining open to a joint venture with Mexican authorities, despite suggestions of U.S. influence on the concession cancellation, which Secker dismisses as conspiracy theories.

Bacanora Lithium, a subsidiary of China's Ganfeng Lithium, is set to defend its lithium mining concessions in Sonora, Mexico, after the Mexican government cancelled them. The company has been operating in the region since 2011 and has invested significantly in exploration and development. Despite the legislative changes by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador declaring lithium a strategic mineral and the creation of the state company Litio Mx, Bacanora's CEO Peter Secker is prepared to navigate the Mexican judicial system and does not rule out international legal action. Ganfeng Lithium, with global mining operations, remains open to partnering with Mexican authorities.

Under Governor Victoria Rodríguez, the Bank of Mexico is undergoing a transformation that has resulted in fewer directors and a leaner structure, aligning with President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's austerity desires. Salaries have been frozen since 2019, leading to a loss of purchasing power and an exodus of officials. Rodríguez's management style, which involves merging directorates and centralizing decision-making, has raised concerns among former officials and experts about the bank's weakened communication and leadership, potentially affecting its response to financial turbulence.

Latin America's economy has outperformed expectations with a projected GDP growth of 2%, primarily driven by Brazil and Mexico. However, Fitch and Focus Economics reports highlight political instability as a significant concern for the region, affecting public finances and economic growth. While Brazil and Mexico show positive momentum, other areas like Central America benefit from remittances, and the Andean countries face challenges due to policy tightening and political issues. Argentina's economy is struggling with hyperinflation, exchange controls, and the impact of drought, despite increased tourism and energy production. Political uncertainty in countries like Peru, Chile, and Bolivia is also seen as a risk to investment and economic stability.

Iberdrola has won a legal battle in Mexico after a court confirmed the suspension of a multimillion-dollar fine imposed by the Comisión Reguladora de Energía (CRE) for allegedly selling energy to third parties under a self-supply permit. The fine amounted to 9.145 billion pesos (507 million dollars). The suspension is not a final victory, and the definitive sentence is still pending. The case has seen a shift in relations between Iberdrola and Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, with the company agreeing to sell 13 power plants to the Mexican government, which will eventually be managed by the Comisión Federal de Electricidad (CFE). The final resolution of the case is expected within three to six months following a hearing scheduled for November 13.

The Confederation of Employers of the Mexican Republic (Coparmex) and its president José Medina Mora, along with business leader and presidential candidate Xóchitl Gálvez, oppose a labor reform proposed by the ruling Morena party that would reduce the workweek in Mexico from 48 to 40 hours. They argue that it is not the right time for such a change, citing the need to increase productivity and reduce regulations. The reform is currently stalled, and business leaders have expressed their rejection, especially in light of recent cost increases for companies, including a rise in the minimum wage, vacation reform, and higher employer pension contributions.

Walmart has opened its first Medical Services Center in Mexico City, signaling a major investment in the healthcare sector, which includes 500 clinics and over a million patients served last year. Other companies in Mexico are also expanding low-cost medical consultations in response to reduced public healthcare access under President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's administration. The dissolution of the Seguro Popular program and changes in the drug procurement system have been criticized for creating gaps in healthcare coverage, particularly affecting the poorest households. Experts suggest that while private sector expansion may improve competition and services, it is a response to deficiencies in public healthcare rather than a substantial improvement.

The Bank of Mexico has expressed concern over the projected increase in public debt for the upcoming year, which is expected to reach levels not seen since 1989. The Secretariat of Finance plans to increase social spending to unprecedented levels and boost construction. Despite President Andrés Manuel López Obrador's claims of an austere administration, the fiscal deficit for his final year in office, coinciding with elections, is anticipated to be significant. The International Monetary Fund has also warned that the proposed fiscal policy for 2024 is unnecessarily pro-cyclical and could leave the next administration in a fragile fiscal position. Pemex, the world's most indebted oil company, is expected to receive federal support to pay off part of its debt due next year. The Chamber of Deputies must approve the budget proposal by November 15.

Tesla is facing delays in the construction of a new plant in northern Mexico, which could jeopardize its plan to launch a new model in 2025. The delays are due to the lack of infrastructure development promised by Nuevo León Governor Samuel García and prolonged environmental permit processes. Despite an increase in federal budget allocation to Nuevo León, there is no specific funding for Tesla's infrastructure. Ignacio Martínez from UNAM's LACEN suggests that if infrastructure work does not start before 2024, the project is at risk. Tesla's Business Development Director Rohan Patel has indicated the company's commitment to progress with the support of the government. However, there are concerns about Tesla's commitment to the project, despite land payments and the company's significant market value.

The IMF has revised its growth forecast for Latin America to 2.3% for this year, up from the previously estimated 1.9%. This second increase follows a 0.3% rise in July, attributed to stronger-than-expected growth in Brazil and Mexico. The report highlights global divergences, with richer countries growing faster due to more pandemic support and quicker vaccine access. Economic activity remains below pre-pandemic levels, especially in emerging and developing economies, with recovery hindered by long-term pandemic effects, the Ukraine war, and increasing geoeconomic fragmentation. Latin America and the Caribbean are expected to see a slowdown from 4.1% growth in 2022 to 2.3% in 2023 and 2024. The IMF forecasts a contraction in Chile and Argentina due to factors like drought. The report also notes that the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and worsening climate crises have reversed decades of poverty reduction, with up to 95 million more people living in extreme poverty compared to pre-pandemic estimates.

Latin American stock markets opened lower on Monday due to global investors' risk aversion following Hamas's surprise attack on Israel. The conflict, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has escalated to 'war,' raises fears of spreading to other Middle Eastern countries, crucial in oil production and trade. Latin American economies face the risk of increased inflation due to rising oil prices, while fears of a recession in the US and China could negatively impact regional growth. Brazil and Colombia, as net oil exporters, may benefit from the price increase, but Mexico, a net importer, will not see a net gain. Experts like Alfredo Coutino from Moody’s Analytics warn that sustained oil prices around $100 per barrel could signal a looming recession for major economies. The conflict's impact on global trade flows and regional economies remains a concern, with the WTI and Brent crude starting the week with significant gains.

Latin American economies are projected to grow by an average of 2% this year, an upward revision from the 1.4% estimated in July, according to a World Bank report. Despite this improvement, growth remains below that of all other world regions. The report emphasizes that the growth rates are insufficient for significant progress in inclusion and poverty reduction. Argentina and Chile are expected to experience economic contractions, while Peru, Mexico, and Colombia will see growth. The region has shown resilience to post-pandemic external shocks, including the war in Ukraine, but faces challenges such as inflation, debt, and the need for inclusive growth and improved governance.

The IMF reports that Mexico's GDP is expected to grow by 3.2% due to strong consumption and private investment before slowing to 2.1% in 2024. The IMF cautions against the high public spending planned for 2024, which could leave the next administration in a weaker fiscal position. Mexico's sectors of services, construction, and automobile production have shown strength, leading to low unemployment and high manufacturing capacity utilization. The government's proposed increase in debt for social programs and infrastructure spending in 2024 is seen as excessively pro-cyclical by the IMF. Mexico's deficit is expected to rise to 5.4% of GDP, with fiscal stimulus at 2.4% of GDP, potentially leading to higher interest rates, a stronger currency, and a slower decline in inflation. The IMF also discusses the federal government's support for Pemex, the world's most indebted oil company, and suggests that continuous budgetary support should be conditional on credible plans to improve its commercial viability. The next administration, taking office in October of the following year, will face tough decisions to adhere to the medium-term fiscal path, with a significant fiscal consolidation forecasted for 2025 that could dampen growth.

Remittances to Mexico reached $5.563 billion in August 2023, marking an annual increase of 8.6%. From January to August, remittances totaled $41.459 billion. The average remittance was $403, with a slight monthly decrease of 1.8%. The Mexican diaspora in the US, estimated at 37.2 million, significantly supports the Mexican economy. However, the purchasing power of remittances has weakened due to the Mexican peso's appreciation against the dollar and inflation. Banco Base reported a 12.45% decrease in purchasing power of August remittances compared to the previous year. The article also mentions concerns about organized crime using services like Western Union and MoneyGram for illicit money transfers, a claim President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has denied.

Mariana Mazzucato, a prominent Italian-American economist, spoke in Monterrey, challenging conventional economic goals and advocating for the state to drive innovation. She criticized Latin America's dependency on natural resources and tourism, and the lack of institutional strength. Mazzucato proposed concrete missions like transitioning to a 100% clean energy matrix and criticized excessive profits in public-private partnerships. She highlighted the global unpreparedness revealed by the pandemic and the need to invest in exposed systems, addressing the water cycle as a global issue. Mazzucato's visit was hosted by Tecnológico de Monterrey, and she has previously met with leaders from Chile, Argentina, and Colombia.

The article discusses the pervasive influence of organized crime in Mexico, which has expanded beyond drug trafficking to include various forms of crime and legitimate business operations. It highlights the impact on daily life, such as the operation of transportation networks and the production and distribution of essential goods like limes, corn tortillas, and chicken. The Employers Confederation of the Mexican Republic (Coparmex) is seeking solutions to combat this issue. The economic cost of violence in Mexico is substantial, with the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) estimating it at 4.6 trillion pesos in 2022, or 18.3% of the GDP. Crime has also contributed to inflation, particularly in food production chains. The article provides examples of how organized crime has affected various sectors, including transportation, where public transport and cargo theft are significant issues, and agriculture, where extortion and violence have led to price increases in fruits and vegetables.

Organized crime in Mexico has extended its reach beyond drug trafficking into legitimate businesses, operating them illegally. This includes control over taxi and bus networks, lemon distribution, and corn tortilla production. In 2022, 27.4% of households reported being victimized by crime. The economic impact of violence was estimated at 4.6 trillion pesos, 18.3% of the GDP. The food production chain's criminality adds two percentage points to the country's inflation. Incidents of violence and extortion have affected the poultry, fish, transportation, and agriculture sectors, leading to price hikes and shortages. The Coparmex and other organizations are seeking solutions to the violence, while the government's spending on security remains low compared to the economic losses incurred.

The article discusses the recent easing of U.S. financial sanctions on Venezuela, particularly in the oil and gas sector, which had been in place since 2019. This move by the U.S. Treasury Department is significant due to Venezuela's large oil reserves and the potential impact on the country's economy, which has been in crisis. The decision is influenced by the need for alternative oil sources due to the conflict in Ukraine and local Venezuelan politics, as the government has committed to holding elections. The easing of sanctions has also been linked to the immigration issue, with an increase in Venezuelan migrants to the U.S. and the first flight of deported undocumented immigrants. A committee representing bondholders of Venezuelan debt expressed optimism about restructuring the country's debt. Analysts and experts comment on the potential for increased oil production to aid Venezuela's economy, despite the challenges faced by the state-owned oil company PDVSA. Chevron, an American company, is expected to play a significant role in increasing oil production.

The article discusses the severe issue of human trafficking in Central America, highlighting the story of Francisco, who was nearly killed after falling into the hands of a trafficking ring. The region's vast illegal economy, which includes drugs, counterfeiting, and now human trafficking, is thriving due to undocumented migration, poverty, and lawlessness. Organizations like the International Organisation for Migration and Asahac report on the dangers migrants face, including falling victim to trafficking or smuggling rings. The article also touches on the role of drug cartels, such as the Zetas, in escalating violence and their shift from drug trafficking to human exploitation. Government efforts to combat trafficking are lagging behind the capabilities of these powerful cartels. The article emphasizes the importance of raising awareness among potential victims to prevent human trafficking.