The legal obligation for smart working ends on April 1st, requiring employees to sign individual agreements with companies.

Michel Barnier, the former European Commissioner, has stated that Italy requires a more robust European Union and that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni needs to decide her stance. He notes that negotiations are progressing well but emphasizes the need for unity. Barnier also warns of the potential rise of populism in upcoming elections, suggesting lessons should be learned from Poland.

Mario Draghi, speaking with Martin Wolf at the Financial Times' 'The Global Boardroom' event, emphasized that the European Union must not compromise on its fundamental values in the face of global and geopolitical challenges. He highlighted the need for greater EU integration to maintain relevance in a changing world. Draghi reflected on Europe's recent challenges, including the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, energy crises, inflation, and Middle Eastern conflicts. He warned against inaction and stressed the importance of defending European values against the rise of autocracies and illiberal democracies. Draghi also discussed the need for higher productivity and competitiveness in technology, education, and digitalization. He mentioned the risk of a recession in the eurozone but did not consider it deep or destabilizing. Draghi called for rationalized defense spending and a unified approach to energy, including infrastructure, storage policy, and renewable energy, ahead of the 2024 European elections.

S&P Global has confirmed Italy's BBB credit rating and stable outlook, defying expectations of a downgrade due to concerns over public debt, budget deficit, and growth prospects. Moody's, with a current negative outlook, may pose a greater risk, as a downgrade could lead to forced selling of Italian bonds by global investment funds. European institutions and financial analysts have revised Italy's economic estimates, noting a slowdown in the global economy, particularly in Western countries. Italian government officials, including Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti and Environment Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin, have acknowledged the challenges but defended the country's budget law. The financial markets remain sensitive to Italy's economic indicators, with bond yields fluctuating and concerns over the impact of rising interest rates on the real economy.

Evolyn, a Spanish company led by Jorge Cosmen, has reached an agreement to purchase 12 trains from Alstom, with plans to expand to at least 16, and aims to start service along the Channel Tunnel by 2025. This move challenges Eurostar's current monopoly on the London-Paris route and is supported by British and French partners. The initiative is welcomed by Getlink, the tunnel operator, and aims to increase competition between the EU and the UK. Eurostar, which is 55.75% owned by the French Sncf, has been the sole operator since 1994.

Alfred Kammer, Director of the European Department at the Washington institution, cautions against premature celebrations of victory in the fight against inflation, advising the European Central Bank not to lower interest rates and urging governments to reduce deficits.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its economic growth forecast for Italy, projecting a 0.7% GDP growth for both 2023 and 2024. This outlook, presented in the World Economic Outlook at Marrakesh, Morocco, is more pessimistic than the Italian Treasury's previous estimates. Inflation in Italy is expected to decrease from 6.0% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024, potentially boosting domestic consumption. The IMF warns of the need for prudence in countries with high public debt, like Italy and France, due to the risk of public finance derailment. Global growth is expected to slow down, with services recovery nearly complete, tighter monetary policies to combat inflation, and the impact of last year's commodity price shock. The IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, emphasizes the importance of maintaining restrictive monetary policies to avoid premature easing and the need for fiscal policies to rebuild reserves while protecting the vulnerable.

Investment banks, including Citi, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley, have advised clients to exercise caution with Italian securities, particularly BTPs, due to the risk of a downgrade by rating agencies amid fiscal uncertainty. The spread between Italian BTPs and German Bunds has widened, with yields expected to remain above 5% for much of the next year. The upcoming debate on Italy's budget law in the Senate and Chamber of Deputies is adding to investor skepticism. Rating agencies S&P, Fitch, and Moody’s are closely monitoring Italy's fiscal dynamics, which could lead to a downgrade if the situation worsens. Giovanni Cuniberti of Cuniberti & Partners notes that while there is no active attack against BTPs, the situation allows for speculation and the spread could trigger unexpected alarms.

Italian ten-year BTP yields have reached 5% for the first time since 2012, a sudden increase according to financial analysts. The spread against the German Bund has risen to 197 basis points amid concerns over Italy's fiscal space for the upcoming budget law and the full implementation of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (Pnrr). The Ministry of Economy and Finance remains calm, and the Btp Valore, a new state bond for retail clients, has had a successful first day of issuance. However, there is concern that if Italy's credibility decreases further, investors may demand higher interest rates, potentially constraining not only the current budget law but also future ones.

The yield on Italian government bonds, Btp Valore, has reached 4.9%, the highest level since 2012. Over 8 billion euros were collected in two days, indicating a significant moment for Italy's economy and potential risks associated with the increased bond yields.