Despite the Bureau of Meteorology's initial forecast of below-average rainfall, east coast cropping regions in Australia have received well above the long-term average, fostering optimism for the upcoming winter cropping program. New South Wales and Queensland experienced a hot January with significant rainfall events. The sorghum crop is expected to exceed two million tonnes, with early harvests showing no quality issues. Domestic commodity markets for wheat, barley, and canola faced bearish trends in January. Canola prices were volatile, barley markets were pressured despite high cattle on feed numbers, and wheat markets adjusted to a larger than expected harvest. The protein premiums for wheat are diminishing as export options decrease and cattle show no preference for grain quality. The long-term weather forecast suggests a potential La Nina pattern, which could benefit winter cropping programs.

Southern and central New South Wales received over 200 millimeters of rain, setting the stage for a potentially large East Coast crop this winter. Soil moisture is rated very high, and major dams are at significant capacity, boosting confidence for irrigators. Despite the end of La Nina, the outlook remains wet. Summer crop harvests may be affected, and grain logistics face challenges due to damaged infrastructure. The USDA's upcoming reports could indicate a shift to soybean plantings due to tight supplies and favorable pricing.

Conversations in the Port Kembla zone are focused on rainfall, with many parts of northern New South Wales receiving up to 25 millimeters recently. Data shows 80% of weather stations in New South Wales have recorded higher than average rainfall year-to-date, with the state's cropping belt averaging over 250mm. The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts a high chance of exceeding median rainfall from August to October. Western Australia's crops need follow-up rain soon, while South Australia's Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas face moisture deficits and frost. Victoria's Wimmera, North Central, and Mallee regions are also concerned about dryness. New South Wales shows strong production potential, with domestic new crop markets reflecting confidence. New crop wheat is bid around $300/t Track Port Kembla, indicating a reasonable underlying bid despite the absence of drought-like conditions.

Autumn sowing in New South Wales is nearing completion with increased optimism, despite dry conditions leading to a significant reduction in canola planting. Wheat and barley have been planted more due to soil moisture deficits. Domestic wheat cash markets have seen a slight increase, influenced by overseas market movements. Barley is trading at a premium compared to wheat. US weather concerns have stimulated global futures markets, with notable increases in CBOT Soft Red Winter wheat contract prices. Australian canola markets remain steady, and the country has approved its first bulk import permit for high protein wheat in over a decade.