The increase in Taliban violence in Afghanistan is affecting the legitimacy of their negotiating team in Qatar and complicating US-Taliban talks. The delay allows the Afghan political elite to prepare for the next phase of negotiations, emphasizing the need for an inclusive approach and a unified mandate. The Afghan government's appointment of Abdul Salam Rahimi as Minister for Peace and the disputed presidential election results add to the complexity. The article suggests that learning from past experiences and including new political figures are crucial for a successful peace process.

The United States has adjusted its approach to engaging with the Taliban, moving past the precondition of addressing human rights issues to foster better relations. A meeting in Doha on July 31, the first official engagement since August 2021, showed signs of progress, with coherent statements from both parties and discussions on confidence-building measures. The presence of US Special Envoy for Afghan Women, Girls, and Human Rights Rina Amiri indicated a shift in strategy, aiming to incentivize the Taliban to form an inclusive government and address social policies internally. The UN Assistance Mission for Afghanistan plans to continue these dialogues, which could lead to international recognition for the Taliban and provide the US an opportunity to address past failures in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan faces a growing threat from Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) amid the withdrawal of foreign forces and the Taliban's unwillingness to compromise. The Taliban's proposed political settlement includes a religious jurisprudence council, raising concerns about theocratic democracy. The U.S. State Department's human rights report criticizes Russia, Iran, and the Taliban for abuses. The Taliban's media crackdown and economic challenges are also highlighted. Afghan refugees in Iran express fears over a potential war with Israel. In India, the Citizenship Amendment Act excludes Muslims, affecting Afghan migrants' hopes for naturalization.

The UN Security Council imposed a travel ban on two junior Taliban members while extending a suspension of a broader ban to facilitate peace talks. The author argues that targeted sanctions could pressure the Taliban without harming Afghans and criticizes the UN for not taking a stronger stance. The article suggests that targeted bans could signal displeasure with the Taliban and break the current stalemate, potentially influencing US policy. It emphasizes the need for engagement to address national issues, international human rights, and moral policing by the Taliban, advocating for a balance between sanctions and dialogue.

The article discusses the end of the war in Afghanistan and the current challenges faced by the country under Taliban rule. It argues against armed resistance, highlighting the suffering already endured by Afghans and the failures of past violent movements. Instead, it advocates for non-violent political action, referencing Gene Sharp's work on nonviolent resistance and suggesting that such methods could lead to long-term change. The piece emphasizes the importance of internal efforts and warns against foreign-imposed solutions, while also cautioning against the polarization of political discourse in Afghanistan.

The Taliban's use of scorched-earth tactics in Panjshir Valley and its heavy-handed approach to counterinsurgency, mirroring past US mistakes, is fostering a cycle of hatred and vengeance in Afghanistan. The group's strategy includes unlawful detentions, torture, and extrajudicial killings, such as the killing of Salafi scholar Obaidullah Mutawakil and the beheading of Mawlawi Izzatullah Mohbi. This approach is driving opponents, including ex-Afghan National Security Forces members, towards Daesh-K for survival, while Iran considers alternatives to the Taliban. The Taliban's failure to adapt its strategy and respect human rights may lead to an unwinnable war and push the population towards endorsing Daesh-K and other resistance movements.

The article discusses the challenges and necessities of negotiating with the Taliban after their takeover of Afghanistan. It criticizes former President Ashraf Ghani for fleeing the country without negotiating a transfer of power, which could have preserved some rights and institutions. The Taliban must recognize the importance of a cohesive society and reconcile their values to avoid failure. The international community should support Afghan civil society subtly to avoid alienating them from the Taliban. The Taliban's inconsistent behavior and the trust deficit with Afghan society are highlighted as obstacles to establishing a stable post-conflict society. The article suggests that a sustainable society requires the inclusion of all parties, including opponents, in the dialogue.

Afghans face a bleak future under Taliban rule, which is marked by a strict adherence to traditionalism and religious code, potentially limiting their ability to adapt and govern effectively. The Taliban's victory, while reducing bloodshed, resulted in the collapse of political institutions and an exodus of human capital. Despite the opportunity to build an inclusive government and gain the population's trust, the Taliban's dominance by the old guard and conservative vision may lead to heavy-handed governance and a lack of inclusivity, particularly for women.

Obaidullah Baheer discusses the delicate balance the international community must maintain with the Taliban to support Afghans who remain in the country post-U.S. withdrawal. He suggests that international legitimacy, sanctions, and foreign aid are levers that can be used to influence the Taliban's behavior. Baheer points to the importance of the United States and its allies in defending Afghan rights and maintaining relations with the Taliban, despite the group's total victory. He also compares the situation to incremental changes in autocratic states like Saudi Arabia and Iran, emphasizing the role of civil society and conditioned aid in fostering change. The article warns against too much compromise with the Taliban or overly idealistic expectations, which could lead to a failing and isolated Afghanistan.

Obaidullah Baheer, a lecturer at the American University of Afghanistan and grandson of mujahideen leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, recounts his transformation from celebrating the 9/11 attacks to advocating for peace and understanding. Raised in a jihadist environment, Baheer's exposure to diverse perspectives through education and interaction with international activists led him to reject extremism. Despite his family's history, he fears for his friends' safety under Taliban rule and hopes to bridge the gap between Afghanistan's progressive and conservative factions.

The Taliban's rapid advance towards Kabul, having already taken control of Kandahar and Herat, has led to over 120,000 Afghans seeking refuge in the capital, with total internally displaced nearing 3.4 million. The Afghan government's strategy to consolidate forces in cities has backfired, losing 15 provinces to the Taliban. US intelligence predicts the Afghan regime could collapse within 90 days. President Ghani's mismanagement is highlighted, and the article suggests he consider resignation and a power-sharing agreement. The Taliban's recent actions, including the treatment of surrendered warlord Ismail Khan and promises of human rights compliance, indicate a desire for international legitimacy. The international community could leverage recognition and aid for a peaceful transition. Without a peaceful power transition, Kabul could face a devastating battle reminiscent of the 1990s civil war.

The security situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating, with the Taliban capturing territory and the Afghan government struggling to respond. President Ashraf Ghani has called for war, but the Taliban's gains suggest a lack of effective military strategy. The international community is warned to devise a clear policy towards the conflict, as the Taliban's actions, including war crimes, indicate either a lack of control or disregard for international norms. The article suggests that the international community should define a threshold for Taliban defiance and consider sanctions against their sponsors, revoke the US-Taliban deal, and close the Taliban's Doha office to pressure the group. It emphasizes the need for non-military intervention to give the Afghan government space to strategize and restore balance to the conflict.

The article discusses the narrative war in Afghanistan, highlighting the Taliban's effective communication strategies and the Afghan government's failure to counter them. It emphasizes the importance of narratives in motivating fighters and legitimizing ideologies, noting the Taliban's use of religious legitimacy, foreign agent, and impending victory narratives. The Afghan government's shortcomings in challenging these narratives and its strategic and political failures are critiqued. The article suggests that the government should improve its messaging and seek international support to manage the narrative contest and gain support in the face of a potential civil war.

The United States claims to want to preserve the progress made in Afghanistan over the past twenty years but also seeks to evade responsibility, as evidenced by President Joe Biden's remarks and decision to withdraw troops. The US has kept the Afghan government on the brink of collapse and in a state of dependency, undermining the legitimacy of the government, especially in rural areas. The article questions the true progress made and the ability of Afghanistan to sustain it post-withdrawal. It highlights the corruption and power accumulation by elites, the Taliban's strategy of sabotaging any semblance of state, and the failure to change the mindset that welcomed the Taliban initially. The progress touted is limited to urban pockets, with rural Afghans unable to see the promised new Afghanistan, leading to disillusionment with the imposed democracy and susceptibility to anti-change propaganda.

The United States, despite claiming to protect progress made in Afghanistan over two decades, is evading responsibility as it withdraws troops, according to President Joe Biden. The US's portrayal of its intervention as a liberating mission is questioned, and the article argues that democracy has not been effectively demonstrated to the Afghan people, with elites continuing to amass wealth and power. The US's strategy of financial aid without addressing fundamental issues has polarized rural populations against the republic. The Taliban's strategy has been to disrupt governance rather than out-govern, capitalizing on the government's corruption. The article suggests that the structural ideology supporting the Taliban persists, and the progress claimed is limited to major cities, leaving rural Afghans disillusioned with the foreign-imposed democracy. The piece concludes that the moderate voice in Afghanistan is likely to be lost, with the Taliban potentially integrating into a social order that still harbors pre-2001 beliefs or even more radicalized views.