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Check FAQAbout Osama
Osama Rizvi is an international energy and economic analyst whose areas of interests include global economy, commodity and financial markets and climate change where he specifically focuses on Oil prices, commodity analysis, interest rates, food prices and global economy. Critically, Osama focuses on energy transitions and the North-South relations and asymmetry in carbon emissions. He also researches and writes about a multitude of other topics such as social issues, policy recommendations, mental models, mind mapping, consultancy service, etcetera. He has Masters in Global Political Economy from the University of London where he went after winning the prestigious Commonwealth Scholarship. Lastly, he is the Head of Academia at World Times Institute (with a total social media following of 0.7 million), the most trusted place that prepares future bureaucrats of Pakistan and also the guest editor of Jahangir’s World Times magazine - the largest current affair magazine in Pakistan with over 50,000 circulation. Osama has written for various global publications and outlets such as: The Diplomat Magazine, The National Interest, Oil Price, Market Insider, Data Science Central and is a regular panelist at TRT World, Bloomberg with Asharq and Pakistan National TV and AAJ TV network. He is also a regular panelist at Gulf Intelligence podcast and contributor for one of the largest websites that cover sustainability related topics, Illuminem. He also had the pleasure to be featured in one of the largest and most prestigious publications in the world and the UK, The Telegraph. Besides this he has managed to be featured in Capital.com, Yahoo Finance and many other digital and print media outlets multiple times. His various videos on Youtube has gathered hundreds and thousands of views. Lastly, he is the South Asia Chair for Society for Low Carbon Technologies - a US based non-profit.
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What are the prospects for liquefied natural gas in 2024?
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) markets are expected to remain volatile in 2024 due to tense geopolitical contexts. Despite potential easing of geopolitical tensions, LNG demand prospects are declining, as evidenced by falling gas prices in Europe. Unprecedented investment in LNG could moderate prices due to increased supply, with significant projects in North America and Qatar. Asia is expected to lead LNG demand, contributing over 40% to global growth in 2024. Europe's economic outlook is challenged by higher-than-expected interest rates, rampant inflation, and political issues. The industrial slowdown in the eurozone will pressure demand, but high stock levels could meet any consumption increase in 2024, potentially lowering energy prices. Geopolitical tensions could, however, cause oil and gas prices to surge. Global gas demand is projected to grow by 1.6% annually from 2022 to 2026, down from the previous five-year average of 2.5% annually from 2017 to 2021. Asia, North America, and Europe's gas demand peaked around 2021 and is expected to decrease by 1% annually until 2026. Europe's shift to renewable energy sources as part of the REPowerEU plan contributes to this decline. Europe aims to maintain high stock levels to respond to potential demand increases in 2024 amidst geopolitical tensions.
What the conflict and tensions in the Red Sea could mean for Europe
The conflict and rising tensions in the Red Sea, exacerbated by Houthi attacks on commercial shipping and retaliatory airstrikes by the UK and US, pose a threat to the global economic recovery. Europe faces potential consequences such as higher energy costs, shipping delays, and a return of inflation leading to sustained higher interest rates. The Red Sea is a crucial trade route, with disruptions leading to longer shipping routes and increased costs, which could result in higher consumer prices and further inflation. The European Central Bank may need to maintain higher interest rates to combat inflation, which has been rising in countries like Germany and France.
What will happen with interest rates next year in Europe, according to the ECB's decisions?
The European Central Bank (ECB) is set to meet on December 14, 2023, with analysts predicting various outcomes for Europe's central bank's interest rates: maintaining, increasing, or cutting them. The ECB previously held rates at 4%. Interest rate decisions impact consumers, with higher rates leading to more expensive mortgages and loans, contributing to the cost of living crisis. The ECB, which meets eight times a year, aims to combat inflation by adjusting rates. Inflation in the Eurozone dropped to 2.4% in November, the lowest since July 2021, moving towards the ECB's target of 2%. Indications suggest the ECB might be the first central bank to cut rates, with a 75% chance of a cut predicted by investors, and Goldman Sachs moving its forecast for an ECB rate cut from Q3 to Q2 of 2024. However, concerns remain about premature rate cuts potentially reigniting inflation, with ECB President Christine Lagarde cautioning against expecting rate cuts in the next two quarters.
Europe energy crisis: Have natural gas prices peaked?
Natural gas prices in Europe have seen significant fluctuations, with a 15% increase in October and a 40% rally at one point, amidst geopolitical conflicts and a slowing economy. European gas inventories are currently 96% full, which is above the ten-year seasonal average. Weather conditions, such as a prolonged El Niño, could impact gas prices. The eurozone's economic slowdown is evident from the recent HCOB’s Eurozone Manufacturing PMI and S&P Global's flash eurozone Composite PMI, indicating contractions in business activity in Germany, France, and the UK. Germany's gas consumption has decreased by 13% in the first half of 2022. Hedge funds have been selling gas futures, and natural gas prices have decreased by 3%. The market remains sensitive to supply shocks, and energy markets are expected to experience volatility. For consumers and businesses, this leads to budgeting challenges and potential impacts on inflation and the retail sector. Strategic hedging and planning are recommended.
Work for Express Tribune- another premium English newspaper
Osama Rizvi Archives
The article discusses the ongoing situation of the COVID-19 pandemic, emphasizing the emergence of what is being referred to as the 'Second Wave of Coronavirus'. The author highlights the importance of remaining vigilant against the virus, as cases continue to rise in the United States. The tone suggests that the public should not become complacent and should continue to adhere to health guidelines to combat the spread of the virus.
Economic and Financial Issues in Pakistan
Osama Rizvi discusses various economic and financial issues affecting Pakistan. He touches on the inflationary pressures caused by housing societies taking over fertile land, which impacts food production and prices. Rizvi also mentions the inefficiencies in Pakistan's electricity sector, including theft and poor infrastructure, as reported by the World Bank. He explores the changing landscape of financial services, particularly the slow growth of the insurance-to-GDP ratio. The article delves into the consequences of emotion-driven investment decisions and the importance of investor confidence for sustainable economic growth. Rizvi argues for the need to address the 'broken windows' of Pakistan's economy and encourages investment in the stock market with improved transparency. Lastly, he critiques Pakistan's slow transition towards a knowledge economy, suggesting a parochial focus on traditional industries.
In my several articles for Modern Diplomacy I have written about everything regarding the geopolitical great game and global economy. I was also the guest editor of this international magazine.
Osama Rizvi
Osama Rizvi is recognized for his expertise in analyzing the complex relationship between developed and developing nations in terms of their economic growth, energy transitions, and policy formulation and execution. He holds a prominent position as the Chair Person for South Asia at the Society for Low Carbon Technologies. His professional roles include serving as an analyst for the US-based Primary Vision Network and leading the academic department at the World Times Institute. His work focuses on the disparities in economic and energy strategies between different regions of the world.
In these weekly research articles for Primary Vision Network I analyse global macro indicators in detail. From Eurozone to South East Asian economies and from U.S. fed and dollar to Chinese economic indicators and global oil markets, I study everything.
DataScienceCentral.com
The article discusses the significant role of trucks in the U.S. economy, highlighting that trucks are responsible for transporting approximately 70 percent of goods and employing 7 million people, half of whom are drivers. The author acknowledges the challenging nature of truck drivers' jobs, noting that some truckers cover around 3000 miles weekly. The focus then shifts to the impact of technology on the trucking industry, suggesting that technological advancements are poised to transform the future of this sector. The author expresses an intention to briefly explain these forthcoming changes.
This is my weekly Monday Macro View show where I analyse macro economic indicators and development and also delve deeper into global oil markets.
Can The Current Oil Price Rally Really Last?
Osama Rizvi is an Economic and Energy Analyst who writes about commodities, macroeconomy, geopolitics, and climate change. He has contributed to various media outlets and participates in panels discussing energy and the economy. The article covers a range of topics including the sustainability of the current oil price rally, the bearish case for oil markets, Pakistan's purchase of Russian oil, misinterpretations of OPEC+ production cuts, the impact of energy prices on Pakistan, demand destruction in oil markets, the Russian oil price cap, the EU's plan to ban Russian oil, the Iran nuclear deal, and the climate crisis. Rizvi also discusses the likelihood of oil prices hitting $100, the truth about decarbonization, the future dominance of fossil fuels, record lows in fracking indicators, and the factors controlling oil prices in 2021.
Oil prices: the biggest tail-risk for Pakistan’s economy
Pakistan faces a significant economic risk due to its dependence on oil imports, as global energy prices rise and the European Union considers banning Russian oil. This could lead to oil prices reaching $170-$200, severely impacting Pakistan's economy. The country's oil import bill has already doubled, and reserves have decreased. The EU has agreed to ban 90 percent of Russian oil imports, which will further increase oil prices. Pakistan's government faces challenges with subsidies on oil and negotiations with the IMF. Policymakers are urged to prepare for high crude oil prices and consider building oil storage facilities and negotiating discounted oil purchases.
How The EU Plan To Ban Russian Oil Could Cause Stagflation
The EU's plan to ban Russian oil in response to the war in Ukraine could lead to stagflation, a situation characterized by high inflation and stagnant economic growth. With energy prices already high and global oil inventories falling, the potential ban raises concerns of an oil price shock similar to the 1980s. The U.S. has reduced its refining capacity, and a supply deficit is expected as demand increases with China easing lockdowns and the summer driving season. Analysts warn oil prices could soar to $170-$200, significantly impacting consumer inflation expectations and potentially leading to stagflation.
Ukraine Crisis and Food Security in South Asia
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has significantly impacted global commodity and equity markets, causing a spike in oil and global food prices, which poses a severe threat to food security, especially in South Asia. Asia, home to 67% of the world's hungry, is highly vulnerable to climate change effects on food security. Ukraine and Russia are major global grain suppliers, and the conflict has disrupted shipments and increased prices, with Ukraine being a key wheat exporter to Asia and Africa. The war coincides with the sowing season in Ukraine, threatening crop production and potentially exacerbating a global food crisis. Historical instances show that rising food prices can lead to social unrest.
Not Just Inflation: Supply Chain Problems Will Persist in 2022
Supply chain disturbances and inflation are persistent issues entering 2022, exacerbated by the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. Hong Kong's new mobility restrictions and flight cancellations are affecting the services sector and logistics costs, with a knock-on effect on consumer prices. Global supply chain disruptions are impacting various industries, including food and semiconductors, with KFC reducing its menu and chip shortages expected to continue. Shipping rates remain high, and the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index indicates sustained pressure. Vaccine mandates may further complicate the labor market. Industry insiders anticipate that these disruptions will last throughout the year, with long-term processes in manufacturing and transport needing time to recover.
Pakistan: Climate Change, Food, and Geopolitics
Pakistan is identified by the U.S. Office of National Intelligence as one of the 11 countries most vulnerable to instability due to climate change, which could cost the country $3.8 billion annually. Agriculture, a significant part of Pakistan's GDP and employment, is threatened by climate change, with the country facing energy, food, and national security risks. The Global South, including Pakistan, suffers disproportionately from climate change effects despite low carbon emissions. Pakistan's energy mix is still dominated by fossil fuels, and a large portion of the population lacks electricity and clean cooking facilities. Rising food prices, which consume a significant part of household income, could lead to social unrest and political instability, as seen in past food riots and the Arab Spring. Geopolitically, India's construction of a food corridor with support from Saudi Arabia and the UAE poses a challenge to Pakistan, which could consider building its own corridor with allies like Turkey, Qatar, China, and Russia. Domestically, Pakistan needs to address climate change through measures such as congestion charges, public transport improvements, energy-efficient factories, and education. The country also faces the prospect of dealing with millions of internal climate migrants by 2050.
Fossil Fuels Will Continue To Dominate For Decades To Come
Despite ambitious international pledges to transition to renewable energy, fossil fuels are expected to remain dominant for decades due to technological, financial, and social challenges. The Paris Agreement's climate goals are unlikely to be met without significant advancements in renewable technologies, such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The oil and gas industry's extensive infrastructure and the low power density of renewable sources present further obstacles. Private sector movements, like BlackRock's emphasis on climate change, could accelerate the transition, but controlling consumption is currently the most effective way to reduce emissions.
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